Winter is coming: Why forecasters love a good vortex
The polar vortex is back. It hit the northern U.S. on Sunday, is sweeping down through the Midwest, and will then move out to the East Coast. Temperatures could drop by 40 degrees and bring some all-time daily lows.
Directly in the path of this cold air mass is the city of Brainerd, Minnesota. City administrator Patrick Wussow is not panicking. When I called him, he was actually chuckling.
Wussow had not yet heard that the area would be struck by a vortex. The city had not made any special preparations for the cold weather, nor did people in town seem overly concerned. He says: “It’s business as usual, preparing for the weather whichever way it comes—cold or warm.”
When similar weather patterns brought on historic cold temperatures in December and January last year, the media popularized the phrase “polar vortex,” and for good reason. It makes for a big weather story, and that buzz creates revenue for weather news outlets. This vortex is a top story on sites like Accuweather.com. CBS News tells readers to prepare for “the sequel.” The NY Daily News calls it a “scary weather phenomenon.”
Dave Changnon is a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University. He says one of the reasons forecasters love a good vortex is that it is predictable, so it makes for an easy story. “It’s not like a snow storm,” he says “where forecasters sit there and say, ‘oh, we are going to get buried with two feet of snow’ and then all the sudden it misses.” If the weather patterns show a polar vortex is coming, it is coming.
People have pretty short weather memories says Changnon, so they forget that these vorticies are nothing new. They are a reoccurring and documented part of the weather pattern, and he says people in their 40s should remember similar cold weather in past Novembers.
This vortex is a little unusual, Changnon says, because it is appearing earlier in November than most. But for that reason, he says it won’t be anywhere near as cold as last year’s vorticies. Changon says people in the affected areas should just prepare for temperatures that feel more like January instead of November.
He, for one, plans to wear a scarf and coat.
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