Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics appears to show inflation cooling off in some parts of the economy. September retail sales were basically flat and import prices were down. So does this mean prices are going to stop shooting up quite so much?

Think of inflation as a runner. In parts of the economy, that runner is slowing down — still going forward, just not quite so fast.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said like our runner, inflation is flagging a bit.

“I think we’re starting to see some indications, in some sectors, that prices are not rising as fast as they have been over the past year,” Daco said.

For example, the Labor Department reported Friday that prices for September imports rose 6% over the past year. That’s the smallest year-over-year increase since February of 2021.

Oxford Economics chief U.S. economist Kathy Bostjancic said even food prices lost a little momentum last month. 

”The pace of inflation — food price — year over year did slow,” Bostjancic said. “It was 11.4 in August and it slowed to 11.2 in September.”

This all sounds good, but inflation isn’t cooling across the board. Going back to our runner metaphor, there are a million different runners in this economy. And they’re not all slowing down.

So while inflation is fading just a touch for food, prices for services are still shooting up.

“It’s one of the more baffling things that is happening in this economy, and it’s gotta be a combination of pandemic and other geopolitical factors that are taking place,” said Gary Hoover, an economist at Tulane University.

Things like the war in Ukraine, which doesn’t fit into any economic model.