US job openings increased in September
We got fresh job openings and labor turnover data today, courtesy of the Labor Department. Employers advertised 437,000 more jobs in September than they did in August. There are now 10.7 million open jobs out there, which is still a lot.
And about 4.1 million people quit their jobs in September, which is also still a lot, although less than earlier this year. That’s a good thing, depending on who you ask. Remember, if you’re [Federal Reserve chairman] Jerome Powell, you want those numbers to come down — a cooling labor market equals cooling inflation. At least that’s the theory.
Last week Las Vegas hosted Staffing World 2022, the annual national convention for temp and recruiting agencies. And, you guessed it, Staffing World 2022 was kind of understaffed. At least if you wanted a bite to eat at the hotel.
“In virtually every one of the restaurants, they gave great customer service, but there just weren’t enough people,” said Richard Wahlquist, president of the American Staffing Association.
That wouldn’t surprise you if you read this morning’s report. Accommodations and food services posted the biggest gain in job openings of any industry.
And the long waits for tables probably didn’t surprise anyone in the temp world, either, despite all the talk of rate hikes and recession.
“We’re expecting that these labor shortages are certainly going to continue rather acutely for the balance of this year and likely into the first quarter of next year,” Wahlquist said.
While August saw a loosening in the labor market, the September numbers show that may have been an anomaly.
“Employers are going to want to pay people more, which is a wonderful thing,” said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard. “But when they pay people more they also tend to pass that on to their customers in the form of higher prices.”
Furman still holds out some hope that the Fed can tame inflation by reducing job openings instead of reducing jobs.
“But when you see a report like this, it becomes less clear you can actually avoid that,” he said.
And even though a recession could be coming, workers don’t seem to be that scared. The quits rate has been steady the past three months.
“Still workers are getting wage increases that are below inflation,” said Ann Owen, an economist at Hamilton College. “So that could be fueling some desire to look for better circumstances.”
The Fed is all but assured to announce the latest round of rate hikes tomorrow. Owen said the real question is what happens at the next meeting in December, when we have more data.
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