Consumer sentiment inched up in December — from all-time lows
Consumer sentiment inched up in December — from all-time lows
Even if they want to shop ‘til they drop (and up until the last minute before the holiday weekend) a lot of consumers probably threw in the towel today, with stores closing early in the face of extreme winter weather.
But it does seem from those November personal consumption expenditure price index numbers, that U.S. consumers are slowing down a bit in the spending department, as they try to hold on to their savings in the face of prices that are mostly still going up.
Inflation has been a huge drag on consumer sentiment. It tanked to all-time lows in early summer when gas prices spiked. There’s been a bit of improvement since then: The University of Michigan’s consumer survey was up 5% from November to December, though it’s still down 15% from the same time last year.
But there may not be much room for further improvement from here.
One key reason consumer sentiment has improved a bit is gas prices, which are down from an average of $5 a gallon in early summer to around $3 a gallon now.
“Gas prices are very important,” said Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer surveys. “It’s a price on the street all the time. It doesn’t matter whether or not you drive, whether or not you’re the one doing the grocery shopping — everyone sees those prices.”
As it’s gotten cheaper to fill up, consumers have cheered up — but only a little, said Jesse Wheeler at polling firm Morning Consult.
“The economic mood across the United States remains very grim,” Wheeler said. “Food prices and the prices of other essentials are still rising pretty quickly. Consumers are very aware of this.”
Because they’ve been running out of cash, he said. “As inflation has continued to outpace wage gains throughout the year, many households are being forced to tap into savings and credit usage. And this is largely unsustainable.”
One reason consumers aren’t even more downbeat is that unemployment is still really low. Most workers remain confident that they’ll keep their jobs, according to Chris Jackson at public-opinion firm Ipsos.
While people are hearing headlines about job cuts in high-tech and high-finance, “only until we actually see people start losing their jobs in large numbers would we see consumer sentiment really dive off a cliff, Jackson said.
Still, consumers are uneasy, said Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics. “This general environment of economic uncertainty, everyone talking more and more about a recession.”
Which is likely to weigh on consumer sentiment and dampen consumer spending well into 2023.
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