Economic indicators can’t tell us the economy’s whole story
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Economic indicators can’t tell us the economy’s whole story
The manufacturing sector contracted in June, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. It said the sector shrank at an even faster rate than it did in May. Manufacturing’s been under pressure, especially as consumers have been spending less on manufactured goods and more on services. But that’s not necessarily a bad sign about the economy overall.
S&P Global’s report said the manufacturing sector shrank because its customers aren’t placing as many new orders.
Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist, said weaker demand can lead to other problems down the road.
“Companies adjusting their output levels, adjusting employment levels, and inventory levels and so forth. Everything stems from that change in new order flows,” Williamson said.
It’s not just the manufacturing sector that’s looking downbeat.
Consumer expectations are falling and credit is harder to come by, explained Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at The Conference Board.
She manages an index of leading economic indicators, and this week, it fell for the 14th month in a row.
“We only had situations like that happening, the most recent, during the Great Recession of 2008,” Zabinska-La Monica said.
But Zabinska-La Monica said that’s not the situation today. Companies are still scrambling to find workers and wages are rising.
In fact, she just had to revise her prediction for this quarter’s economic growth from negative to positive.
Does she find the economic forecasting business frustrating right now?
“It’s … ahh [sighs] … not frustration. I wouldn’t call it frustration. I think that it’s challenging,” she said.
Either way, she said nobody should be frustrated that the economy is doing better than she and other economists expected.
And those downbeat indicators don’t tell the whole story.
Take consumers, said Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan. They might say they’re pessimistic about the economy.
“But if you look at what they do, consumers are out there spending like they’ve never spent before,” Wolfers said.
Wolfers said it’s true that some sectors of the economy are slowing down. But there just aren’t enough of them to be concerned.
“If you move beyond the vibes and look at the hard data, we’re creating jobs at a gangbusters pace, unemployment is at a 50-year low. This ain’t a recession, man,” he said.
Wolfers said the best way to predict the trajectory of the economy is to look at how the economy’s doing right now.
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