What the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections can reveal
What the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections can reveal
The Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day meeting later on Wednesday. Of course, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be headline news. And most economists are expecting the Fed to leave rates alone.
But those same economists are also focused in on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which will also be released Wednesday.
If you want to know what Fed officials think about the future, you’ve got to grapple with some initials. There’s the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee that sets interest rates. Four times a year, it issues its SEP, the Summary of Economic Projections.
“I think the Summary of Economic Projections is the main event,” said Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at BofA Global Research.
The Summary of Economic Projections lists what each member of the FOMC expects for the next few years, he said — on economic growth, the unemployment rate, inflation and interest rates. That provides clues for the future. If, say, FOMC members think economic growth won’t be so great, they’ll want to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates.
“And that generally leads to more borrowing activity, which leads to more investment and so more economic activity, more hiring,” said Bhave.
The Summary of Economic Projections is anonymous, so you don’t know who’s thinking what. But it’s still a useful interest rate predictor, per Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY.
“And that provides some forward guidance as to where monetary policy will be over the next year, the next couple of years,” he said.
And on Wednesday, for the first time, we’ll get a look at the FOMC members’ predictions for 2026.
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