Christmas is well over two months away. But you wouldn’t know that looking at the sales events some retailers are rolling out right now. Companies like Target, Walmart and Kohl’s held sales this week aimed at holiday shoppers, and Amazon just wrapped up its second Prime Day event of the year.

So why are retailers rolling out holiday deals in early October?

While consumer spending has been holding up, steady inflation, high interest rates and other factors could lead shoppers to finally pull back, according to Claire Tassin, retail and e-commerce analyst at Morning Consult.

“You have student loan repayments resuming, we have child care subsidies ending that are all going to put increasing strain on household budgets going into the holiday season,” she said.

So, retailers want to get shoppers in the door now, said Bryan Eshelman, a managing director at AlixPartners.

“They’re worried that consumers’ wallets are shrinking, and so they’re trying to grab as much share of that wallet as they can while consumers are still spending,” he said.

This strategy comes with some risk. For one, retailers could sell too much during these early sales, per Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester.

“They can sell out of, like, really good merchandise super early, and then they’re left with nothing, you know,” she said. “That’s really valuable in November and December when they need to actually be selling.”

Retailers could also face some backlash from consumers who just don’t want to think about the holidays already, Kodali added. 

But while some people might complain, others have been holiday shopping since July, said Tassin, who surveys consumers about their shopping habits.

“So retailers are really meeting consumers where they are and understanding that holidays give people permission to spend money,” she said.

Even if that spending is happening months and months in advance.

Correction (Oct. 12, 2023): Previous versions of this story misidentified the company Claire Tassin works for. She’s at Morning Consult.