Home prices have reached new records, yet consumer confidence rose. What gives?
Home prices have reached new records, yet consumer confidence rose. What gives?
This is a big week for economic indicators. Later in the week, we’ll be getting retail inventory numbers, pending home sales and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index.
We also got a couple of big numbers Tuesday. The first one probably won’t surprise you: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index went up again in March — 6.5% nationally — so those high housing costs that have been driving inflation are still a thing.
Meanwhile, consumers are actually feeling more confident about the economy, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, after three months of steady pessimism, which seems a little weird.
The Conference Board asks consumers two things: how the economy is now, and how will it be in a few months. Senior economist Stephanie Guichard said consumers didn’t exactly say they think things are getting better.
“We saw an improvement that is mostly driven by fewer consumers expecting things to deteriorate,” Guichard said.
In other words, gas and food expenses are still high, but consumers don’t think they’ll get much worse. But overall, they are still pessimistic.
“Over two-thirds of consumers are worried about a recession in the next 12 months. That’s high,” Guichard said.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates also remain high, while housing prices are rising faster and faster. That doesn’t hurt consumer confidence directly because home prices are not part of the index. But one question that is included: Whether folks plan to move in the next six months.
“That remains at one of the lowest levels that it’s been, I think, in the history of the Consumer Confidence Index,” said Brian Connolly, who teaches business law at the University of Michigan. He said the rising Case-Shiller index partly explains that.
“I don’t mean to be pessimistic, but I think that we are going to just continue to see high housing prices,” Connolly said.
But there’s a reason consumer confidence may have improved despite those housing prices, according to Towson University economics professor Yongchen Zhao.
“The increasing consumer confidence mostly reflect this kind of shared sentiment towards the strengths of the labor market,” Zhao said.
Its biggest strength being the high number of available jobs. Zhao wasn’t surprised by rising consumer confidence. He said his own confidence is pretty high too.
“I’ve been hearing about predictions of recessions and worse economic conditions for the last maybe two or three years. And we still haven’t had one,” he said.
And Zhao said this month’s improvement isn’t as big as it sounds. Yes, consumer confidence improved after three straight months of decline, but since 2022, the overall trend remains relatively flat.
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