How the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight today compares with the ’70s and ’80s
How the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight today compares with the ’70s and ’80s
The consumer price index for May clocked inflation at 3.3% annually, a slight cooling of the inflation rate in April. On a monthly basis, prices were flat, which cheered many observers and investors. The news came early Wednesday before the Federal Reserve wrapped up its two-day meeting, where it left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.
But in the 1970s and 1980s, the Federal Reserve was battling double-digit inflation and didn’t have the luxury of patiently holding rates steady during that effort. Marketplace’s Sabri Ben-Achour spoke with Marketplace correspondent Nancy Marshall-Genzer for more.
Nancy Marshall-Genzer: So the Fed faced some economic shocks back then that prompted it to keep raising interest rates to cool the economy, douse the flames of inflation. There was a partial OPEC oil embargo in the early 1970s, and that sent gas prices up. But today’s economy is less sensitive to oil prices, partly because vehicles are a lot more fuel-efficient.
Sabri Ben-Achour: One other interesting fact you dug up was that the inflation of the ’70s and ’80s had a bit to do with how old Americans were at that time. It was a younger population. Explain that one.
Marshall-Genzer: It was and, Sabri, we tend to spend more when we’re younger, so demand for products and services goes up. You know the law of supply and demand: High demand pushes up prices. But now the population is older; boomers are saving more, spending less, so there’s less demand putting pressure on prices.
Ben-Achour: The interest rate hikes of [2022 and 2023] seem like they came on strong, came on fast, but by historical standards it’s not all that fast. In 1979, Paul Volcker took over as Fed chair, and in his fight with inflation, the Fed did not mess around. It was much more aggressive, right?
Marshall-Genzer: Oh, absolutely. I mean, Volcker’s Fed would increase rates by several percentage points at a time if it felt it needed to. Year-over-year inflation was above 11%, Sabri, when Volcker took over. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, says Volcker did hike rates sharply, but for today’s Fed, it’s different.
Ryan Sweet: They don’t have to press nearly as hard as Volcker did. Volcker essentially just slammed his foot on the brake and pushed the economy into a recession to kind of cure all our inflation woes. We don’t have to do that this time around, fortunately.
Marshall-Genzer: And Sweet says the Fed also realizes now that it needs to keep inflation expectations anchored because if everybody thinks inflation will rise, businesses will hike prices, workers will demand raises and inflation will rise.
Ben-Achour: Hopefully we do not expect that this time around.
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