For young voters, housing is a top issue in this election
For young voters, housing is a top issue in this election
Housing affordability is among the top issues motivating Peyton Swift to vote in this presidential election, along with the war in Gaza, women’s and gay rights and the environment. Swift, 27, works at an insurance tech company in Washington, D.C., one of the country’s most expensive markets. Between the cost of housing and student loan debt, they said, they and their friends feel like they may never become homeowners.
“It’s really demoralizing, I think is the best word for it,” Swift said. “It just feels sort of like the American dream is not something that’s accessible anymore.”
That’s a feeling many in Swift’s generation share. Redfin asked roughly 3,000 homeowners and renters to weigh the importance of various issues in how they plan to vote. Ninety-one percent of adult members of Generation Z, between 18 and 27 years old, said housing affordability is somewhat or very important, a higher percentage than any other issue they were asked about. That’s compared to 87% of millennials and 83% of Gen Xers.
“Each generation that was older seemed to care a little bit less about housing when it came to the presidential election, I think because housing affordability is less of a concern if you already own a home,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist.
For young adults just starting their careers, the one-two punch of higher home prices and higher mortgage rates can make homeownership feel impossible, Fairweather said.
“Already they have this huge obstacle of affording rent, and then homeownership seems even less attainable to them, especially if they’re in an expensive city,” she said.
Home prices have risen more than 40% since before the pandemic, according to Redfin, while the median asking rent is up more than 20%. But even 80% of baby boomers, who are more likely to own homes outright or have lower mortgage rates, said housing affordability is an important issue.
“When housing prices go up, that means that property tax bills go up, and a number of states are seeing that,” said Jenny Schuetz, who researches housing policy at Brookings Metro.
Meanwhile, homeowners in many parts of the country are facing higher insurance premiums, due to inflation and the impact of climate change.
“So even some of the groups we might think are sort of more insulated from rising housing costs are seeing it show up in their bills in different kinds of ways,” Schuetz said.
A recent Gallup poll found that housing is the second-biggest financial concern for Americans overall, after inflation.
As for how the outcome of this election will affect housing costs, Schuetz said, “people need to keep pretty realistic expectations about what the president by himself can do and the federal government more generally.”
For one thing, the independent Federal Reserve, not the White House, sets interest rate policy. The Fed is keeping rates high to fight inflation, another top voting concern. And the main reason housing is so expensive is there just isn’t enough of it where people want to live. Policies that could encourage more building — like looser zoning rules to allow apartments and duplexes in single-family neighborhoods — are controlled at the local and state levels.
“Traditionally, the way the federal government has intervened has mostly been through subsidies, providing things like the mortgage interest deduction or subsidies to low-income renters,” said Schuetz. “Of course, subsidizing demand when we have tight supply can actually be counterproductive and wind up pushing up rents and prices more.”
Voters who want more housing in their communities should look further down the ballot, Fairweather said.
“Pay attention to whether your mayor is pro-housing or not, whether your city councilors are pro-housing or not, and then state legislature,” she said. “Both on the right and the left, there’s been movement to have more liberal zoning.”
Home prices could affect the presidential election in other ways. A recent study found that, in the last six presidential elections, swing counties with high home price appreciation were more likely to vote for the incumbent. Those with lower price appreciation were more likely to go for the challenger.
For most homeowners, their house is their biggest asset, said Eren Cifci, a professor of finance at Austin Peay State University in Clarksville, Tennessee, and co-author of the study.
“When the price goes up, they feel happier, they feel wealthier, and they feel like they are doing well, right?” Cifci said. “So as a result, they think that is because of the incumbent party.”
In other words, even if presidents don’t actually have that much do with the price of housing, they get the credit — or the blame, depending on your perspective.
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