Why the so-called “left behind” bloc might be doing better than you think
Why the so-called “left behind” bloc might be doing better than you think
Public opinion polls show a lot of people who feel left behind in America. But The Economist magazine has been looking at some numbers about people who got stuck on the wrong side of globalization, freer trade and deindustrialization that show things have actually been improving.
“Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio recently spoke with Zanny Minton-Beddoes, editor-in-chief of The Economist. Below is an edited transcript of their conversation.
David Brancaccio: So your team’s been tracking some improvement for people who ended up on the wrong side of what some call “neoliberal policies”? How do you have that figured?
Zanny Minton-Beddoes: Well, first of all, it has been — over the last generation — a pretty tough time for people who did not have a college degree, people who were often in what’s called the Rust Belt parts of the country. And the relative improvement in wages that you get if you went to college relative to someone who did not finish high school was, in 1979, about 60%. By 2016, it had risen to 170%. So basically, people who did not finish high school, who only had a high school education saw a tremendous hit in terms of their wages. That’s the quintessential “left-behind” person.
But actually, what has happened in the last eight years or so is that that college wage premium has shrunk dramatically. Wage growth amongst less skilled Americans in recent years have been much faster than amongst people with higher skills, and the unemployment rate has been much lower. The traditional Rust Belt states, which, by and large, as you know, are swing states, actually have had lower unemployment rates than the national average, by and large.
Brancaccio: The analysis in The Economist magazine doesn’t think industrial policy is helping all that much in improving the lives of people left behind. How come?
Minton-Beddoes: Actually, a lot of the manufacturing subsidies and a lot of that money that was passed hasn’t really been spent yet. It’s all just coming on stream. So, you could say, well, it’s too early to tell. It’s got a lot to do with the fact that the economy has been running really hot. Both President Trump and President Biden run huge fiscal stimulus, big budget deficits. There was also a big rise in state minimum wages.
Brancaccio: When you’re talking about manufacturing jobs and the lack of manufacturing jobs and bringing manufacturing jobs to the United States, we should no longer equate that with lower-skilled people, with say, high school educations. Modern manufacturing jobs aren’t what they used to be.
Minton-Beddoes: That is absolutely right. Since 2016, the number of men with Ph.D.s working in manufacturing has risen by 50%. Manufacturing is increasingly a high-skill, high-end activity. You shouldn’t assume that more manufacturing jobs means more jobs for male workers of the sort that I think both Donald Trump and President Biden have in mind when they’re talking about bringing good manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
Stories You Might Like
There’s a lot happening in the world. Through it all, Marketplace is here for you.
You rely on Marketplace to break down the world’s events and tell you how it affects you in a fact-based, approachable way. We rely on your financial support to keep making that possible.
Your donation today powers the independent journalism that you rely on. For just $5/month, you can help sustain Marketplace so we can keep reporting on the things that matter to you.
