Will AI lead to layoffs? New data from CEOs says no
Will AI lead to layoffs? New data from CEOs says no
The audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG is out with its latest U.S. CEO Outlook survey. The annual survey is taken from CEOs who head up 400 large companies here in the U.S., and features insights on the long-term expectations for their companies on topics such as cybercrime, economic uncertainty and generative artificial intelligence.
Paul Knopp is KPMG’s U.S. CEO. Marketplace’s Nancy Marshall-Genzer spoke with him to go over the top findings. Below is an edited transcript of their conversation.
Nancy Marshall-Genzer: What is the CEOs’ general economic outlook for the next three years? Are they optimistic, Paul?
Paul Knopp: Certainly, CEOs are optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. economy. They remain very optimistic about the prospects for their own businesses. They’re seeing certain challenges that lie ahead, Nancy. For instance, how do you embed and embrace generative AI throughout the organization to make it really meaningful and transformative? And certainly, we’re seeing geopolitical complexity, as well as political uncertainty, rise to the top in terms of challenges, along with continuing concerns about prices and cybersecurity as top of mind for many CEOs.
Marshall-Genzer: Yeah, I wanted to ask you about AI. According to the survey, more than two-thirds of the leaders you talked to said they see generative AI as a top investment priority. Why are they so enthusiastic? How do they think AI could help their companies? But also, what kind of risk do they see?
Knopp: Well certainly cyber risk is emanating from generative AI itself. So deepfakes, for instance — and that risk is evolving over the course of time. But more importantly, they see it as a huge opportunity. CEOs are looking, how do I optimize my data? How do I make sure the governance around generative AI is appropriate? And how do I have my workforce adopt this training or this skill? What we’re seeing from CEOs is a real belief that over the course of next three to five years, that generative AI and AI are going to be truly transformative for their organizations. And we’re seeing also use cases in terms of customer experience, sales and marketing, IT, finance. It’s really a very impactful technology.
Marshall-Genzer: Of course, AI could have a big effect on employees. How would AI affect the workforces of these CEOs? Do they foresee layoffs?
Knopp: About 70-plus percent of CEOs believe it will not dramatically change their workforce, which would be consistent with emerging technologies over the last 40 years. We generally believe that there will be net economic growth. And what we feel is that these technologies like generative AI and AI are going to augment the skills of workers and employees, and certainly, as they learn these skills over time, they will absolutely enjoy the benefits of generative AI and AI. And I think that’s still something that we see on the horizon as an area we need to make more progress.
Marshall-Genzer: A growing number of CEOs are also looking to get people back to the office. 79% want them back in the next three years, according to your survey. How are they going to convince people to return?
Knopp: We believe that that sentiment, Nancy, is a view that if employees are together more often, they can learn more effectively, they can develop more quickly, accelerate progress when it comes to what they do in their particular field of play, and certainly collaborate more. So, it’s a vision by CEOs that they would like to see employees back in the office closer to full time, but there is no doubt that flexibility when it comes to workers/employees, is going to be something that we have for many years into the future. And these hybrid environments tend to be very sticky, and it could very well be that we’ll experiment and pivot for many years into the future.
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