Presidential campaigns are spending big to win a single electoral vote
Presidential campaigns are spending big to win a single electoral vote
Campaigns, parties and PACs are on track to spend $15.9 billion influencing this year’s election, according to campaign finance researchers at OpenSecrets. A big slice of that is flowing into the swing states that could decide victory in the Electoral College, including Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan. But purple states aren’t the only ones being bombarded with ad spending.
Take, for example, the reliably Republican state of Nebraska, where the hottest campaign swag in Omaha this cycle is a yard sign. Not a Trump or Harris for President sign, but a simple blue dot on a white background.
“The Democrats are clamoring for these yard signs to put in their yard,” said Randall Adkins, who teaches political science at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. “Because they like being the blue dot in the middle of the red Republican state in the middle of all of the red Republican states that are in the middle of the country.”
All those blue dots are dotting lawns across the city because unlike every other state but Maine, Nebraska doesn’t automatically allocate all of its Electoral College votes to the statewide winner in the presidential race. Instead, that candidate gets two of the state’s five votes, and the other three go to the winners in the state’s three congressional districts.
“So, while the state may vote Republican and two of the congressional districts may vote Republican, it’s entirely possible that the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District could vote Democratic, like it did in 2008, 2020,” Adkins said.
That 2nd District includes the city of Omaha. There was a recent attempt led by former President Donald Trump and his supporters to eliminate that blue Democratic dot in the sea of red, but it failed. Now, both campaigns have to spend in Nebraska in case that one Electoral College vote turns out to make a difference in November.
“I think it’s great because we aren’t a flyover state right now, we are getting a lot of attention,” said Theresa Thibodeau, co-chair of the Red State Nebraska PAC. Thibodeau’s group has been distributing its own yard signs with a bright red image of the state to counter all those blue-dot lawn signs in Omaha.
Thibodeau said the additional influx of attention does come with downsides.
“A lot of people are wondering, ‘Hey, who can we trust on, on the advertising that we’re seeing, on the ads that go up on TV?’ And there has been a lot of dark money coming in,” she said.
On top of the Electoral College vote fight, there are competitive House and Senate races in the state as well this year. And with control of Congress in the balance, the national parties and PACs are pouring money in.
Even some state-level issues are getting funding from outside, according to Gavin Geis, executive director of the pro-democracy group Common Cause Nebraska.
“We’ve also seen more money, and we’ve seen more money not necessarily related to this winner-take-all fight, but because of many of the ballot measures that are on our ballot this year, which have received a lot of funding from outside interests,” said Geis.
Sharing the ballot with the federal election are initiatives on marijuana, paid sick leave, using public funds to subsidize private school tuition and abortion.
“Both on the protecting-abortion-access side and on the pro-life side, both of them have seen a tremendous amount of money coming from national interests,” said Geis.
He said all this extra cash flowing into Nebraska means this election looks very different from previous cycles — more TV ads, mailboxes stuffed with flyers and more robust door-knocking operations for both ballot initiatives and federal candidates.
“I myself have seen far more activity in my neighborhood, with organizers from campaigns going door to door and talking with people about the candidates that are going to be on the ballot,” he said.
It’s all giving residents in at least some parts of Nebraska a taste of the swing state experience.
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