2024 U.S. election: views from China
At the visa unit of the U.S. consulate in Shanghai, dozens of people are in line by 7 a.m. waiting to go to America for work, study and travel. It can take months to get a visa appointment. Even with a time slot, hundreds of applicants that come through a day still wait at least an hour for the interview.
Data scientist Andy Dong is renewing his American work visa and said he does not have a preference between Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
“I don’t think there has been a good choice at this moment,” Dong said.
The U.S. and China traded $575 billion dollars worth of goods last year. That may change depending on who ends up winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Trump has said he would escalate tariffs on Chinese exports, while Harris’ China policy could be an extension of the present administration’s under President Joe Biden, consisting of cooperation in some areas, and protectionism in others.
“If Trump may be selected that may be worse,” Dong said.
Worse because after Trump was elected president in 2016, he put scrutiny on Chinese students studying in fields that may impinge on American national security. This has continued under the Biden administration.
“It’s very tough, specifically for some majors like chemistry, biochemistry or biology, artificial intelligence, and computer science,” Dong said.
That has not deterred computer science graduate Carmen Wang from wanting to go to the U.S. She is applying to further her studies in business analytics in Chicago.
“Because America is greater than any other country in this field,” Wang said.
Instead, she thinks the biggest impact of the U.S. presidential election may be on Chinese people who want to settle in America.
“Trump wants America to be great again, so he may not want [more] immigrants to go to America,” she said, adding that Harris might be slightly better since she is a daughter of immigrants.
“If she is elected, then [Chinese] immigrants might be tolerated a little more,” she said.
Chinese exporters may struggle more under Trump, according to salesman Huang Tao, who is applying for a business visa.
“Trump has already said he will increase tariffs on Chinese exports again,” Huang said. “He has done big damage to businesses like ours.”
Huang works for a company that manufactures flooring and their products are subject to an extra 25% tariff in the U.S., imposed during Trump’s first term. The tariffs have been kept in place by the Biden administration.
The tariffs have meant Huang’s flooring company is not growing in the U.S. market as fast, but America remains a key market for the firm.
“There is still demand for our products and anyway, American consumers bear the cost of the tariffs in the end,” he said.
Although Huang doesn’t want Trump to win, his colleague Wang Yong does.
“Because Trump is a businessman and he’s all about maximizing benefits,” he said, while waiting to get a business visa to the U.S.
He said China’s leadership may find it easier to negotiate with a businessman like Trump, rather than with Harris.
But when pressed to name a good deal China extracted during Trump’s first term, Wang struggled to think of one. Then he shrugged.
“I just get the feeling from the domestic media that China favors Trump more. He gets more coverage,” he said.
However, most people who spoke to “Marketplace” said they are not following the U.S. election, like Zhang Yunwei, who is applying for a business visa to Georgia.
“My job is kind of busy, that’s why,” he said.
“We don’t pay attention to other country’s affairs. It is not of our concern,” said a vendor who rents out locker spaces to people because applicants are not allowed to bring electronic devices or bags into the U.S. consulate.
“All we want is to earn more money,” he said, without giving his name for fear of official retaliation.
However, simmering U.S.-China tensions have directly affected the locker business around the U.S. consulate. The vendor said there used to be six places offering this service in the neighborhood, but that has gone down by half because the number of visa applicants went from thousands to hundreds a day in the last few years.
It doesn’t matter whether Trump or Harris get elected, according to a woman whose daughter is applying for a tourist visa to the U.S. While she said she can speak freely in China, she, like many people worried about official retaliation, only gave her surname: Wang.
“China is very strong now,” she said.
By which she means, China can handle whoever ends up being the next U.S. president.
Additional research by Charles Zhang
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