American farmers are feeling gloomy
America’s farmers are in a bad mood these days. The latest read on farmer sentiment from Purdue hit an eight-year low.
And more than half of the 70 agricultural economists surveyed by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal this month believe the farm economy is in a recession. Another quarter say it’s on the brink.
Right now, U.S. commodity crop farmers are pulling corn and wheat and soybeans out of the ground.
And Scott Gerlt, chief economist with the American Soybean Association, said even though fall harvests are looking pretty good, “I think we’re just seeing the stress level rise across the countryside.”
Gerlt said farmers are paying more for things like land, seeds and fertilizer.
Their debt-dependent businesses are burdened by still-high interest rates, and commodity crop prices are down.
“I think we’re going to see a mix of farmers who are losing money this year to barely breaking even,” Gerlt said.
Behind those lower prices are record crop yields in the U.S. and around the world.
Basically, Doug Johnson, who heads up Johnson Ag Outlook, said supply is out of sync with demand in ways the industry couldn’t predict.
“If you have a job in the city, you have a paycheck, you get paid every two weeks, you know what your income is going to be,” Johnson said. “That’s not the world of farming. where you are literally at the mercy of the markets.”
But the other thing about farm finance is that it’s cyclical.
Farmers are just two years out from record-high farm incomes, “with a little bit more padding in their coffers,” said Kristen Owen, an analyst at Oppenheimer.
Owen added there’s a saying in the ag business.
“Low commodity prices solve low commodity prices,” Owen said.
By creating new demand, for example, low corn prices could drive up ethanol production. Still, Owen said producers are moving with caution.
That’s reflected in layoffs at equipment manufacturer John Deere.
“I think that there is a lot of uncertainty in the farm economy right now,” Owen said, over what will be in the next Farm Bill and what happens with the election and trade policy in the coming months.
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