Boeing strike shows up in September’s decline in durable goods orders
Boeing strike shows up in September’s decline in durable goods orders
The monthly durable goods report from the Census Bureau shows that new orders fell 0.8% in September, just like they did in August. This report measures the stuff you can store or inventory, like electronics and machinery. Here’s the thing, though, about last month’s data: If you strip out transportation, new orders for durable goods actually went up by 0.4%.
The report’s biggest downer comes from just one company: Boeing. The aviation and defense giant is nearly two months into a strike and in a yearslong struggle with quality control and faulty planes. It is also the domestic maker of planes.
“Boeing is our airline industry, so the fact that you got one company that’s so, so dominant, that can drag things down,” said Ed Emmett, a fellow in energy and transportation policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
He added that the whole transportation industry is bracing for the election results. “Elections have consequences, and I think everybody right now is waiting to see what’s 2025 going to bring,” Emmett said.
Meanwhile, some manufacturers are still unloading their built-up pandemic-era inventory. For instance, trucks aren’t doing well right now, according to Dave Herring, senior vice president of U.S. sales at Mitsubishi HC Capital America.
Inventory aside, he said the biggest reason “is the anticipated reduction of interest rates.”
As for the uptick in orders in other sectors last month? “The increases were modest,” said David Garfield, global head of industries for AlixPartners.
He called that a reason for caution: “Even when you exclude transportation and show a bit of an increase, we’re really flat year over year.”
But Garfield also said those expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the election, will bring more certainty and maybe more orders. But the uptick will be gradual.
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