Less is not always more in economic data

Make Me Smart June 7, 2024 Transcript

Note: Marketplace podcasts are meant to be heard, with emphasis, tone and audio elements a transcript can’t capture. Transcripts are generated using a combination of automated software and human transcribers, and may contain errors. Please check the corresponding audio before quoting it. 

Kai Ryssdal 

What is that? Is that like a Muppet?

Kimberly Adams 

Yes, that’s what it was.

Kai Ryssdal

That’s what I thought.

Kimberly Adams

Okay. Well, hello. The camera’s over here. Hello everyone, I’m Kimberly Adams. Welcome back to Make Me Smart, where we make today make sense. It’s Friday, June the seventh. I’m in a different place. I don’t know where to look.

Kai Ryssdal 

Well, that’s really funny actually. You can take the girl out of the TV reporting business, but you can’t take the TV reporting business out of the girl, right?

Kimberly Adams 

Gotta get to the right camera. Gotta get to the right camera.

Kai Ryssdal 

I just don’t look at the cameras on this and I’m like, what? You know, whatever. Anyway, I’m Kai Ryssdal. Thanks for joining us on the podcast and on the YouTube livestream. Friday today, it is time for our weekly happy hour episode. I will tell you in advance. I got home like 10 minutes ago, so I don’t have anything to drink. Got nothing. I’m not drinking anything. You?

Kimberly Adams 

Not hydrated at all. I have a bottle of wine from the very New York bodega downstairs.

Kai Ryssdal

Oh, there you go.

Kimberly Adams

It is a black oak, Black Oak Cabernet Sauvignon from California, from where you are, and I have not tried it yet. So, here we go.

Kai Ryssdal 

We should tell people. Number one, you are in New York, and number two, someone in the chat wants to know what’s on your shirt.

Kimberly Adams 

Ah, thank you for asking. It says, “I can’t, I’m on deadline,” and I got it from Chicago Public Media. Love this shirt.

Kai Ryssdal

Yeah, it’s good. It’s a really good one.

Kimberly Adams

Yeah. It’s also like, I related so hard when I saw it because I have literally said these words to people on many occasions, just like I can’t. I’m on deadline. And once somebody is friends with a journalist long enough, they learn that that is, like a thing that cannot be moved. The wine is fine. It’s great. And I have to give a shout out to the wonderful collection of glassware in the New York bureau. Wow, they’ve got all their things.

Kai Ryssdal

Oh, is that right?

Kimberly Adams

Oh, yeah. I had multiple choices of wine glasses. Love it.

Kai Ryssdal 

Okay, so this is extremely, extremely, extremely dorky, but it’s also conceivably really, really important. So, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today that they are going to reduce the sample size of the household survey in the monthly jobs report due to budget constraints. So, by way of very quick background, the jobs what we got today is actually two surveys. One is called the establishment survey. They go out and they ask companies, how many people are you employing? And from that, they get the number of jobs added to the economy. It’s a rotating sample of companies. They also ask households, are you asking for jobs? I’m sorry. Are you looking for a job? Right? And that is where they get the unemployment rate. And Erika McEntarfer, who’s the commissioner of the BLS, said today that the BLS is going to cut the size of the household survey from 60,000 to 55,000 a month, starting in 2025. Now, is that still a really valid sample size? Yes, but two points. Number one, you’re trying to measure a labor force of 168 million people, so sample size matters. Number two, ever since the pandemic, response rates on these surveys have been really, really low. It’s just tough to get a hold of people. They’re in different places. They’ve moved. They don’t trust survey takers, all of those things. So, any reduction in the sample size is a bad thing. And McEntarfer says, quote, “There is a real risk of a decline in quality. We don’t want that as we try to figure out what’s going on in this economy.” As I said, extremely dorky, but extremely important.

Kimberly Adams 

And the quality that we’re going to lose is going to be on people from the most vulnerable communities because they are going to be the groups that are a smaller number of people and harder to reach, and therefore even harder to get represented in what sampling there is, right? And this came up in the polling conversation the other day, and even when we did our own Marketplace poll. Remember when we did those economic anxiety polls? And I remember sitting in a meeting and asking why they couldn’t break out data on Asian Americans, and they were like the standard sample size of most reputable samples is not large enough to give us actionable, meaningful data on Asian Americans in terms of just their portion of the population. That blew my mind. I have to take a little bit of an aside here because Sarah Himalayan and others in the chat point out that we never acknowledged or found out what happened to the critter in your house.

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh, so Tim, our rodent guy, came, put the appropriate pellets in the appropriate places, and said, I’ll be back in a month. Literally, that night, the critter noises stopped. So, Tim’s coming back in a week, I guess. And he’s going to patch up all the holes in our house. It’s 115-ish year-old house. So, he’s going to patch up all the holes in in, you know, I mean, just stuff between shingles and all that jazz. And hopefully we’re good to go.

Kimberly Adams 

Sarah Himelein. Not Himalayan, my bad. But how do you know it didn’t just die in your walls?

Kai Ryssdal 

Well, no smell yet, and it’s been warm here lately.

Kimberly Adams

Okay, good.

Kai Ryssdal

And I’m going with it. I’m just going to roll with it. I’m just going to roll.

Kimberly Adams 

Okay, fair, fair, totally fair. Yeah, all right. My news item is equally wonky, and in the nuances of federal policy, but also, I think, extraordinarily important. A story in the Washington Post today reporting on the fact that former President Trump, candidate Trump, has plans, and this is not like secret reporting behind the scenes, but like plans on his website to curtail the spending, the power of the purse of Congress. So, the Constitution of the United States lays out pretty clearly who has what job in politics, and Congress has the power to appropriate funds, right? To decide how our federal tax dollars get spent. The President has some tools at their disposal to limit that, to direct it. Executive agencies can kind of filter it out under certain guidelines, but ultimately, Congress is supposed to decide. Trump does not think that that should be the case. The headline is “Trump plans to claim sweeping powers to cancel federal spending. In a second term, allies said the former president would look at unilateral funding cuts for the World Health Organization and green energy initiatives.” And so, it brought up some interesting history. “During his first term, Trump was impeached after refusing to spend money for Ukraine approved by Congress, as he pushed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to provide incriminating evidence about the Biden family. At the time, Trump’s aides defended his actions as legal but largely did not dispute that the President is bound to adhere to budgetary law. Since then, however, Trump and his advisors have prepared an attack on the limits of presidential spending authority” they want, and it goes on to explain that Trump wants to “repeal or push back parts of a 1974 law that restricts the president’s authority to spend federal dollars without congressional approval.” This is a big deal because this if allowed to proceed unchecked by a court that seems very sympathetic to Trump, to put it mildly, this could mean that any law and any funding stream is totally up for grabs. That’s a huge deal. You’re already seeing components of the federal government trying to insulate themselves from a second Trump term. The glaring example I saw in the last week or so was in Government Executive, which is a lovely news publication that I read a lot.

Kai Ryssdal

Don’t say anything, Kai. Just don’t. Don’t.

Kimberly Adams

The EPA union, like the union for workers at the Environmental Protection Agency, they’ve ratified their most recent contract, and they’re using their union contract to try to protect their jobs from what Trump has said he would do, which is sort of try to get authority to dismiss any civil servants and any federal employees. And so, they’re trying to use their union contract to insulate their jobs from a potential Trump administration. This is all wild.

Kai Ryssdal 

Number one, good freaking luck trying to get your union contract to help you from this because it will be the power of the federal government, right? And I’m telling you, look out. Number two, he is telling us what he’s going to do people. And look, here’s the deal. Most people listening to this podcast don’t need to be told this. It’s the marginally attached voters. It’s the likely to stay home voters because they don’t like either candidate who need to hear this. He is telling us what he’s going to do.

Kimberly Adams 

Yeah, it is literally on the website, and it says President Trump, and this is from the Trump campaign website. “President Trump will restore the Impoundment Power, reestablishing the balance of power between the Legislative and Executive branches. On Day One, President Trump will direct federal agencies to identify portions of their budgets where massive savings are possible through the Impoundment Power, while maintaining the same level of funding for defense, Social Security, and Medicare. By the way, the most expensive things in government after interest on the national debt. That’s another story. Okey dokey, so that’s the news that I got.

Kai Ryssdal 

We’re going to come back in a minute for some Half Full/Half Empty Quick break.

Kimberly Adams 

All right, we are back. Welcome back. It’s time to play Half Full/Half Empty hosted by the one, the only, the amazing Drew Jostad, whose name I struggle to say every single time. I don’t know why that combination of Drew and Jostad is challenging for me.

Drew Jostad 

Well, you can call me Tim if you want. Are you half old or half empty on the state of Texas getting a new stock exchange?

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh, this is a story Elizabeth Trovall did for us from Houston. A new stock exchange coming to the great state of Texas, going to be in Dallas. So, look, it’s a wash, right? Because you can trade stocks now from anywhere at any exchange. There’s actually a law that says the best price is where the trade will be executed. So, I’m, you know, can I say I don’t care? I don’t care.

Kimberly Adams 

Wasn’t it Sabri or somebody else who did a story years ago about how the reason buildings are positioned the way they are in New York is to have, like, the fastest connections to the stock exchange, so they can make the trades more quickly. And Texas is not close.

Kai Ryssdal 

Well, look, but, but that’s the point, right? You put the exchange actually in Dallas, and your proximity to that exchange is what dictates, right? The story has been. So, Michael Lewis wrote a great book about this, and it was called. God, somebody in the chat tell me. But it’s all about this exchange, a new exchange that was going to take care of that distance. Because what happens is, if you have access to a trading facility that you are closer to like, the big banks do in New York, right? You can actually front run the trade. You ping for with one share offer, and that comes back to you, and then you can make your big offer on 1,000 shares or whatever. Yes, “Flash Boys,” really a good book, explains this whole thing. It’s really cool. So anyway.

Kimberly Adams

Half empty.

Kai Ryssdal

Okay, fair.

Drew Jostad 

All right, half full or half empty on the rise of Uncrustables?

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh, my God. Oh, my god.

Kimberly Adams 

That was an interesting conversation.

Kai Ryssdal 

So, peanut butter and jelly sandwiches basically with a crust cut off and they’re sealed shut. They are a billion-dollar brand for Smucker’s because of basically viral marketing, because Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs and big celebrities are eating them because I don’t know why. It’s a PB&J sandwich, but you know. I’m half empty just on principle.

Kimberly Adams 

Half empty on the sandwiches. Half full on the story because it reminded me the peanut butter jelly song. And it’s like, it’s peanut butter jelly time. It’s peanut butter jelly time. Did you ever hear that with a little dancing banana?

Kai Ryssdal 

I never did. I got a different one. My song goes peanut butter, peanut butter, peanut butter, jelly. Peanut butter, peanut butter. And then, there’s some lyric after that. Yeah, there’s some lyric after that. I forget. Anyway.

Kimberly Adams 

This was like a 90s, early 2000s like when gifts were, like GIFs, whatever were literally created, literally created. It was like a dancing banana that was singing peanut butter jelly time. It was lovely.

Kai Ryssdal

There you go.

Kimberly Adams

Dating myself here. Let’s do it.

Drew Jostad 

Speaking of sports stars, Bazooka candy brands have received a $10 million investment from a group of professional athletes. Are you half full or half empty on sports stars investing in bubble gum?

Kimberly Adams 

Better than tobacco products and all, or better than crypto. How about that? Better than crypto. Half full.

Kai Ryssdal 

Better than crypto. Yeah, I did not know of this story. I will go to my grave, by the way, saying that Bazooka bubble gum is the best bubble gum ever. Forget all this Hubba Bubba and Dubble Bubble and all that jazz. Bazooka. I know, but it’s all, for me, it’s actually a little nostalgic, right? That little rectangle of bubble gum, right? You take the wrapper off, there’s a cartoon inside with Bazooka Joe, you know?

Kimberly Adams 

Oh, in the story, they had, like, they have some sort of partnership, I think, with like, DC Comics or something, to update their cartoons and everything.

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh, that’s so interesting. Yeah, yeah. Anyway, so there’s cartoons inside. When I was a kid, Bazooka sour apple bubblegum was the jam. Let me just say. Anyway, so I’m going to go, I’m going to go half full on anybody bringing back Bazooka bubble gum. I didn’t know they were a candy brand, too. I don’t know.

Drew Jostad 

They also make ring pops and baby bottle pops from the 90s.

Kimberly Adams 

No, ring pops still exist. I see them.

Kai Ryssdal 

Ring pops are still a thing. Yeah, yeah, totally.

Kimberly Adams 

I think the baby bottle pops, maybe not so much. Probably was a choking hazard, but there were so many dangerous things that were delicious. I’m half full. I think it’s sweet and nostalgic, and we need that kind of stuff.

Drew Jostad 

Okay, so, let’s see. New York City is working on redesigns of some pandemic era open streets to keep them open for bikes and pedestrians permanently. Are you half full or half empty?

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh, half full. Half freaking full.

Kimberly Adams 

I am half full. But I know this is like such an issue. One of the folks in the New York bureau here has told me of some epic tales of like, these knockdown drag out battles in their neighborhood over trying to keep their streets pedestrian friendly when cars and businesses want them to reopen. I am very lucky to live in a neighborhood that’s pretty low traffic in DC with a lot of outdoor spaces, especially around the restaurants. And I really enjoy it. And I wish the same for everyone. I think it’s great if you can have it. Oh, but Robert makes a good point, which is the key problem is access for the disabled. Those sorts of things need to be built in because if you can’t get close to your destination, and you have some mobility issues that can be hard. All right. Are we ready for the poll? All right, folks in the YouTube chat, please get ready to vote, and while you’re there, feel free to give us a little thumbs up, or a like, or a comment.

Drew Jostad 

All right, coming July 14, the United States Postal Service will be raising the price of a Forever Stamp from 68 to 73 cents. Are you half full or half empty?

Kai Ryssdal 

Wow. That’s a lot. That’s a nickel. That’s like, that’s like, hello? Less than 10%, more than 5%. Let’s call it 8%. That’s a lot. Although, I mean, in all honesty, the last time I actually mailed a letter. Could not tell you, truly could not tell you.

Kimberly Adams 

So, I do write letters and send cards. And I also mail like, packages, like I had a book sitting on my shelf, and I sent my best friend a text. I was like, do you want this book? She’s like, yeah. Put it in package, mail it via the Postal Service, sending it to St. Louis. I priced it out. Well, I did Media Mail, so it was pretty cheap, but most people don’t even know that exists, and they try not to list it on the website because it’s such a cheaper rate. But for the most part, it’s like, I can mail something back to St. Louis for under 10 bucks, and it’s like door-to-door delivery by hand. It’s not bad.

Kai Ryssdal 

A lot of hate for Louis DeJoy, the Postmaster General of the United States in this chat. They don’t care for him at all.

Kimberly Adams 

Yeah, lots of people don’t like him. I still find it astonishing that he really shut down this idea to make all of the postal vans electric when there’s an opportunity to do that, right. And I was just like, it was such a clean sweep. Could have, like, meaningfully, totally advanced the technology. It could have made, like, an actual dent in emissions. And I was just like, really? And for what it’s worth, they have shifted some of the fleet already, but there was an opportunity at a point to do all of them at once. And he was just like, nah, man, not going to do that. I still think that door-to-door delivery of a letter or card for under $1 is a steal, and if it keeps the service going, I’m going to actually say half full, even with the price going up.

Kai Ryssdal 

Yeah, I think that’s right. I think that’s right. I agree. I agree. So, here’s the poll. It’s 58%. Oh, it just went away. You guys are killing me. Here we go. 57% half full. 42% half empty. 170 of you voted. Hmm, interesting split. Interesting split.

Kimberly Adams 

Yeah. Yeah. How much of that is just like an a half empty vote because you don’t like DeJoy versus a half empty vote.

Kai Ryssdal 

I would say no small amount of that is DeJoy hate right there. You know?

Kimberly Adams 

All right. Well, we made it.

Kai Ryssdal 

Yes, we are. Yes, we are. Done for the day. Back on Monday. In the meanwhile, you know where to reach us, 508-U-B-SMART. Or email us at [email protected].

Kimberly Adams 

Make Me Smart is produced by Courtney Bergsieker. Today’s episode was engineered by Jayk Cherry. Our intern is Thalia Menchaca.

Kai Ryssdal 

The team behind our Friday game is Emily Macune, Jamila Huxtable and Antoinette Brock. Marissa Cabrera is our senior producer. Bridget Bodnar is the director of podcasts, also the senior producer acting of this afternoon. Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On-Demand. Yes, today only. Just saying.

Kimberly Adams 

Someone wants you to try rum and Dr Pepper.

Kai Ryssdal 

Yeah, no. See, I’m not a Dr Pepper guy. I mean, maybe. But maybe.