Inflation is still here, folks

Make Me Smart May 26, 2023 Transcript

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Kimberly Adams 

Jasper positioned himself as if he knew what time it was.

Kai Ryssdal 

Nice laugh Kai. Nice blurt whatever that was. Hey everybody! I’m caught Kai Ryssdal, wecome back to make me smarter where we make the day make sense. It is Friday today 26th of May.

Kimberly Adams 

And I am Kimberly Adams. Thank you for joining us this Friday for economics on tap our weekly happy hour. Today we’ve got our YouTube live stream up and running, thank you for everyone who has joined in, and we are going to have drinks we’re going to have news fixes. And then we’re going to end on around of our fun fun game Half full half empty. Kai, what are you drinking?

Kai Ryssdal 

I am as viewers of the live stream we’ll see, I’m sniffing my beer because I’m unfamiliar with this particular beverage. I’m having a Ballast Point Sculpin but it’s a hazy sculpin and I’ve never had their hazy sculpin before. So I’m very curious. It’s about 7% ABV because you know I gotta get going because my mother in law’s coming over for dinner tonight. So there’s that. But let me have a little sip and we’ll see how it goes.

Kimberly Adams 

Cool. I am having a gnarly head read Zinfandel because I do love a red Zin and it was at the grocery store. And I thought and saw it and…

Kai Ryssdal 

And it was there!

Kimberly Adams 

It was there. It was there. Let’s see. Jen is drinking a nine-pin ginger hard cider. That sounds really good. Michael in Houston has a four roses old fashion today. Nice.

Kai Ryssdal 

We got a cuba libre. We got a gin and tonic. We got bakers bourbon, not makers, but Baker’s bourbon from Ellie Powell. Okay, interesting. Lemon Drop Martini from Jennifer flippin Pierce.

Kimberly Adams 

Yes, yes, yes. Yes. I saw some sparkling water earlier which is great. Nice and healthy. A 2020 Austin hope Cabernet that Viane is drinking. That sounds cool. All right. And Brett has a Manhattan. All right. There’s a lot of bourbon happening in this chat today. Okay.

Kai Ryssdal 

Shall we?

Kimberly Adams 

All right. Oh, somebody… what is gnarly wine? Somebody was asking me about gnarly wine, a barley wine from Sierra Nevada? Have you ever heard of this?

Kai Ryssdal 

Couldn’t tell you. Have not. Have not.

Kimberly Adams 

Alright, have to look it up. Okay, what’s your news?

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh. So I hate to be wrote and predictable, but I’m going to be wrote unpredictable. But the bonus news is that I’m not going to talk about the debt limit. I’m going to talk about inflation. And I’m going to talk about PCE, personal consumption expenditure, which is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation as anybody who listens to marketplace knows. That came out today. And here’s why I’m bringing it up, and as Kimberly said, the other day, I don’t like to cross post between shows, because all y’all deserve new information, but this I think is really relevant. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation on a year over year basis is it 4.4%. A month ago, it was at 4.2% year over year. So that is to say, the thing the Fed likes to look at for inflation is going up. And I submit to you that the Federal Reserve is now in a jam because inflation is stuck. And it’s stuck at about the four-ish four and a half-ish percent level. Yes, it’s been coming down, but this is not a great sign. And if the Fed is stuck and inflation stuck, then that means interest rates are not going to, they’re not going to take a pause at the June meeting. They’re not going to cut rates for sure this year. And they may actually have to hike just to get the bleeping labor market, and the bleeping economy to slow down a little bit. And that’s I think what has to happen. So that’s my news. (Opens the shed door) There’s Willow, there’s Willow. Anyway, sorry. So it’s kind of a big deal, right? And it’s, you know, it got lost in in the news today because there’s negotiations and blah, blah, blah. But I want to make sure people saw that.

Kimberly Adams 

Yeah, you know, we thought we were on such a path to, you know, finally slowing down on these rate hikes or even coming to a pause and your conversation with Bostick this week was really interesting. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. You know, the, what is the worst part? You know, like, what is still yet to come? You know, what else… what other inputs are there going to be? Because I imagine when the Fed was sort of scoping out, you know, its interest rate strategy, not meaningfully in the mix, was the threat of not raising the debt limit.

Kai Ryssdal 

Right. Right. Right. And that, you know, that tightens credit conditions, and that slows things down. And there’s the bank challenge that slows things down. One of the things Bostic said this week was, you know, we haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet. And the hard part is when unemployment starts to go up a little bit, or maybe a lot, and the economy slows a little bit, or maybe a lot, and the Fed is going to be pressured to ease up on its interest rates and it’s not going to do that until inflation is well and truly dead. Not mostly dead. And that’s going to be the hard part for the Fed.

Kimberly Adams 

It’s gonna be the hard part.

Kai Ryssdal 

Yeah. Anyway, what’s yours?

Kimberly Adams 

Oh, boy. Um, mine is sort of an amalgamation of things that I’ll just call consequences. Because in our lives, and especially in our political lives and our economic lives, a lot of times I think it feels like people just get away with things. And they do. A lot of people with power, get away with crimes and misdeeds and don’t have to face consequences for their actions. But sometimes people do. And this week, we got the sedition sentencing for Stewart Rhodes, sedition, one of the most serious crimes you can commit in this country. He got 18 years in prison. Stewart Rhodes, being the leader of the Oathkeepers. Threw his followers under the bus on the way out, by the way, said that he didn’t really tell anybody to show up and that it was all on them. But whatever.

Kai Ryssdal 

“I wasn’t even in Washington that day. I wasn’t even in town.” Sure Stew.

Kimberly Adams 

18 years. And I think that that is good. And I think that is just and I’m glad to see that justice is being done there. There was another person, Jessica Watkins, who was another Oathkeepers member and an Army veteran who was sentenced to 8.5 years today. She seems to be a little bit less resilient, not resilient, but a little less resistant to agree that, you know, it was not a big deal. In the sentence…. In the sentencing today, she said “I was just another idiot running around the hallway,” Watkins told the court before the sentence was handed down Friday, “but idiots are responsible. And today you are going to hold this idiot responsible.” Number three in the list of consequences is a very fascinating piece in Politico magazine, titled “How I won $5 million from the my pillow guy and saved democracy.”

Kai Ryssdal 

Okay, go ahead.

Kimberly Adams 

Now, there was a lot happening after the 2020 election with all the false claims of election fraud, and all the lawsuits and all the what’s up with the voting machines, it was all garbage, right? But amongst the many, many claims, Mike Lindell made all of these claims about rigged voting machines and about hacks and about how foreign agents were getting involved with, you know, anything he could make up at the time. It was made up! And so in the summer of 2021, Lindell said that he was going to hold a cyber symposium to release data that he claimed proved U.S voting machines were hacked by China, right? And he said that if anybody could disprove his data, he would pay them $5 million. And so a guy went to the symposium and prove that it was wrong. And then he was like, “Where is my money?” And Michael Lindell was like “No, I’m not paying you.” And a court, after some time, has finally made Mike Lindell pay up. And it’s a very fascinating piece to read. It’s an interesting story. But yeah, that… I mean, now $5 million, may not be a lot in the larger scheme of things but it’s something. And consequences do sometimes happen. And it’s nice to see the system working sometimes. So those are my news items.

Kai Ryssdal 

Amen to all of that. I think that’s exactly right. And it’s good to point out when when, when the consequences actually land on people. I’m 100% in favor of that. Alright, so that is the news for today. We are going to take a quick break here. But before we go, we are going to be in Seattle for a live taping and make me smart on Friday the ninth of June. We’re doing it with que KUOW, the public radio station up there. Kimberly and me and Drew and Marissa and I think Bridget and I mean, there’s gonna be, it’s gonna be the whole gang. We’re gonna be at town hall in downtown Seattle. Yeah. Whole slew of us. And if you’re in town, come on by.

Kimberly Adams 

Yeah, it’s my first time in Seattle, I’m very excited to go. It’s gonna be great. Yeah. So we’re gonna be doing what we do normally for economics on tap, we’re going to have our drinks and I’m very excited to see what what is on offer there. Plus, we’re gonna have a special guest, the author, comedian, Lindy West, who’s going to join the party. And that’s going to be really fun. We’re going to include a link to ticket information on the show notes in case you do happen to be in Seattle or want to make a little trip. Or you can go to kuow.org/events. Thanks. We’ll be right back. Okay, now it is time for our game Half full half empty, where we go through some news topics from the week and tell you how we’re feeling about them. And it is hosted by our very own Drew Jostad. And Drew, let’s go ahead.

Drew Jostad 

All right. According to this year’s report from Morning Console, Bandaid has topped the list of the most trusted brands in the United States beating out Ups and Amazon among others. Are you have full or half empty?

Kai Ryssdal 

I am stuck on bandaids cause bandaid’s stuck on me

Kimberly Adams 

Cause BandAid’s stuck on me.

Kai Ryssdal 

That’s right. You even harmonized too. Tou were gonna harmonize. We got, we got screwed by delay. That was amazing. Oh my god. Oh my God. Also for the record…

Kimberly Adams 

When we’re in Seattle we’re gonna be able to line up.

Kai Ryssdal 

I was just gonna say like hell we’re gonna say in person. That’s not happening. Anyway. Yeah I’m half full. I love me some bandaids.

Kimberly Adams 

Ever since they have you know… I remember it was a big thing when we were kids how like the bandaids never matched anyone other than white people. And so now that they’ve expanded a bit, sure, half full.

Drew Jostad 

Half full or half empty on Netflix’s great password sharing crackdown.

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh, my goodness. Well, let me just say, on the theory that nobody from Netflix actually listens to this podcast and that my children don’t listen to this podcast. Kids I’m really sorry, but I’m not paying 7.99 for you guys to be able to get this service wherever you happen to be at this point. Sorry! Look, I’m really… my more fundamental point is I’m surprised it’s taken them this long. Honestly. They’re losing billions of dollars. More power to them. Honestly. You know. Also but they should share, they should share all that revenue with the people that make the programs, the writers. Just saying

Kimberly Adams 

I don’t know I haven’t had Netflix in a while because the last time I had it I was password sharing with like an ex and so that’s that’s the Netflix it’s still on, like on my TV. And so I don’t use it.

Kai Ryssdal 

Wait. Does your, does the ex still use it?

Kimberly Adams 

I’m sure he does. He said it’s fine for me to keep using it if I want to. I just don’t. I maintain good relationships with people. I do. I do. So I probably need to get my own Netflix account just so I could start watching Netflix shows. But I have so little time to watch TV anyway. And there’s a lot of anime that needs to be watched. And so I don’t know. I just haven’t really done much on Netflix.

Kai Ryssdal 

Where do you, where do you where do you watch your anime? YouTube?

Kimberly Adams 

Well, it’s only Crunchyroll now because I used to use Funimation but then Crunchyroll bought Funimation and you can see some… Netflix has a lot of anime, Amazon Prime has some, HBO Max or whatever they’re calling themselves now has some anime as well. But mainly Crunchyroll.

Kai Ryssdal 

So Crunchyroll and what is it fun, funny what?

Kimberly Adams 

Funimation but they’re not around anymore

Kai Ryssdal 

So those are all words. I don’t know what they mean. What are those?

Kimberly Adams 

It’s just a brand name. Like

Kai Ryssdal 

Of what?

Kimberly Adams 

I suppose it I mean, I guess you could make it’s a sort of a reference to a crunchy sushi rolls. Since anime anime is Japanese. Maybe it’s like a play on words for that. Crunchy Roll. I don’t know. I’m sure someone in the chat knows the origins of Crunchyroll

Kai Ryssdal 

Ian Panzer is calling me out here: “Kai’s expressions that those names are hilarious.” Yeah. Anyway.

Kimberly Adams 

Right. Next, next.

Drew Jostad 

All right. According to one measurement, QR code menu scans have dropped by about 27% compared with the same period two years ago. Are you half full or half empty on maybe the decline of the QR code menu?

Kimberly Adams 

I will go half full because I miss menus, I really do. I like to look at it, I don’t… because the other thing is when you’re out at a dinner or lunch or something, trying to spend time with people, it’s hard enough to get people off of their phones and not distracted. So to force somebody to use a phone to see the menu, or if they want to order another drink or order another appetizer or something like that, it just sort of takes away from the moment for me. So I am half full on fewer QR code menus. I would much rather have… I know we were we were doing it for sanitary measures now, but um, I’d like a real menu, please.

Kai Ryssdal 

Exactly that. And and also, let me just throw in there for those who you know, have varying levels of ability, but also imagine just because I mentioned her already, imagine you’re out with your 80 soon to be 4 mother, year old mother in law, and and you have to pull up on a phone this tiny little menu and you got to squeeze and you got to this and that. And it’s just, it just doesn’t it doesn’t work. It doesn’t work. So I’m half full on the on the demise of QR menus.

Drew Jostad 

All right, half full or half empty on green steel.

Kimberly Adams 

I don’t know what that is. I don’t, I don’t know.

Drew Jostad 

Like less carbon intensive way of making steel. Maybe using green hydrogen. Some finally, of course, hydrogen in the in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Kai Ryssdal 

Sure, yes. Half full.

Kimberly Adams 

I mean, we need all the help we can get. We’re on a real bad path. So yes and everything. All the above. Yes. Haf full.

Kai Ryssdal 

Totally, totally

Kimberly Adams 

Assuming it’s not like the green washing thing where it’s like “clean coal.” You know?

Kai Ryssdal 

I imagine there’s some measure of that in there actually. Sorry to interrupt. But but yeah, I think that’s exactly right. I think there is going to be some measure of greenwashing. But you know, yeah, clinkal is not a thing. Anyway. Alright, so Drew is this is this last one. We ready? Okay, so there’s gonna be a poll. If you’re on the live stream, pay attention, and you guys get to decide. Kimberly and I will vamp for a while and then we will come to the poll. Coming to the poll.

Drew Jostad 

All right. If you’re in a hybrid or otherwise office, you can just ask if you… you can just answer if you miss socializing at the office or not, but are you half full or half empty on socializing at the office?

Kai Ryssdal 

So this is very interesting, because, as I think regular listeners of this podcast will know, I’ve been working in, or working out of, I guess the Marketplace offices since about six months into the pandemic, because my home internet provider, which shall remain nameless, is terrible. And so we had some connectivity problems and the engineers were like, “no, no, no, you’re coming downtown to do the show. So shut up.” So I’ve been doing it.

Kimberly Adams 

They said it much nicer than that.

Kai Ryssdal 

Yeah, that’s right. It is a 25 ish, 1000 square foot office space, that on on the average, busiest day now has five people in it. And it’s it honestly, it used to really weird me out. But it doesn’t anymore. But, but I… it’s just so much space, and it cost the company money. And also, and I guess I’m going to do I’m not going to get into the nitty gritty of the half full half empty here. But it’s just, it’s weird to have that much room with so a few people. I don’t know. Kimberly, do you have thoughts before we actually say what we think? If that makes sense.

Kimberly Adams 

Yeah. I like going to the office when I know that there will be people there. Like whenever you come to DC, with Nancy, Farghalli, the executive producer of our evening show, and Drew or Charlton or somebody else, or Gary, one of our other engineers, I will make sure to come into the office so I can say hi to everybody. And that’s great. But that’s like every couple months. And I feel very comfortable socializing with people on Slack, as you all know from my great treatise on Slack emojis the other day. But I also recognize that some of this comes from a place of privilege, as some folks have mentioned in the chat, that I have a comfortable home where my only real distraction is Jasper, and I’m able to, you know, have peace and quiet and manage my time. If I had a bunch of kids running around or a dog that demanded attention.

Kai Ryssdal 

That was Willow, I don’t know what that going.

Kimberly Adams 

You know, all of these things make a difference. And so like, it’s easy enough for me to say like, “No, I don’t need it. I can I can socialize with other people whenever I want to.” But, you know. Yeah, so I’m gonna go half empty on socializing in the office, because I think the poll is done because I just feel like I can, I can manage. And you and I are both introverts. So I think we probably do better on our own anyway.

Kai Ryssdal 

You know… So it’s really interesting that you point that out, because that’s where I was gonna go. I am an introvert. I, when I go do public events, for Marketplace or whatever, like, every 45 minutes, I need to take five minutes and just go into the bathroom, and wash my hands and rinse my face and just take a break because it just overwhelms me. And it’s and it’s kind of wild

Kimberly Adams 

It’s a lot of people.

Kai Ryssdal 

It’s a lot of people. But I really, really missed the socialization, socialization in the office. I miss it a lot. I miss the random connectivity. I miss the random sparks of creativity. I miss the conversations, and I miss the people. That is not to say that there aren’t some people, you know, in the office space who drive me nuts, but that goes with any office space, but I really miss it. And I think it’s a I think it’s a missed opportunity for us as a shop and for Marketplace as program. And I I I really miss it. I miss it. Which sounds, it sounds weird coming out of my mouth, to be honest with you.

Kimberly Adams 

No, I get it. Because I think that there’s two… we’re talking a little bit about two separate things. There’s office socialization, and there’s office collaboration. And I think we probably are harmed by the lack of in-person collaboration. That I think we could certainly use more of. But I feel like I’m good on the socialization part. I will tell you a really quick funny story about Nancy Marshall-Genzer, who used to sit in a cubicle next to me in the before times, and now we are sort of ships passing in the night occasionally. But one… when we used to sit next to each other, every single morning, Nancy would go into the kitchen and she would make herself a bowl of oatmeal. And then she would go back to her desk and she would eat her oatmeal. And then her spoon would scrape the bottom of the bowl loudly. Every single day. Every single day. And one day, I was like, “Nancy, I can’t take it anymore. It’s driving me nuts.” And she didn’t notice at all. And she ended up switching to a plastic spoon so that it wouldn’t make so much noise. But when she was in the office the other day, I was saying “I need you to record the sound of you scraping your spoon against the bowl so I can play it for nostalgia.”

Kai Ryssdal 

Right, right. And look, that’s a really good point, right? Maybe there is a little bit of nostalgia here too. Right? Because the before times are are gone.

Kimberly Adams 

And they’re never coming back

Kai Ryssdal 

And this goes back to, this goes back to the early days of this podcast. They are never coming back. And we pine for the things we miss, even as we know that we can never have them again. Wow, this turned into a downer. I’m really sorry. But…

Kimberly Adams 

Well, I think that that’s like… I saw it TikTok about this the other day as well, because I’m so looking at TikTok because I have no care for my personal security I guess, digital security, but they were saying that this woman went to therapy. And the therapist told her that the person who she was before her trauma was gone forever, and she needed to mourn the loss of that person and move forward with the knowledge of that person was never coming back. And yeah, we’re never going to be the same that we were before the trauma of the pandemic. In our economy and our social lives and our personal lives. Nothing. We’re never going back there. And that’s hard. And it takes some mourning. You know, and we did some stories about this about grieving the loss of the old economy, and our old, lives. And so, yeah, I think I think that’s a that’s part of it. So back to the question of socializing at the office. The poll results were… lots of extroverts in the chat. Half full 66% on socializing in the office and half empty 33% about socializing in the office. So y’all are clearly ready to go back. Or to go in more. I suppose going back is not the same as what we were doing. You’re ready to be in the office more.

Kai Ryssdal 

All right, Charlton get us out of here.

Kimberly Adams 

I lost the script. I don’t know where I am.

Kai Ryssdal 

Okay. Well, I’ll tell you…

Kimberly Adams 

Nop the fundraiser I found it, it’s okay. So we’re done for today, except for our fundraising pitch, because that’s what it is. We are going to be off on Monday for Memorial Day. And so if you could, over the weekend, give some time, give some thought. Or actually not over the weekend, because our May fundraiser ends tonight, actually. So it would be awesome if you are able to support if you could do that tonight. We are 75% of the way to our $350,000 goal. So thank you so much to everybody who’s already contributed. That is a lot. But you know, before you fully unplug, and you know, start your your holiday weekend, hopefully with some thought of the folks who sacrificed their lives for our country… I hope you will also consider contributing for us. We have you know, the swag, but we’re funded by the public and we can’t do the work that we do unless we have your support. And so if you’re in a position to give right now and you’re able to do that, specifically tonight, we would be very very appreciative

Kai Ryssdal 

Marketplace.org/givesmart. Marketplace.org/givesmart. I’m gonna say it one more time. Marketplace.org/givesmart or click on the link in the show notes. Those of you who have given by the way, thank you. We don’t get to do this, Kimberly and I don’t get to sit here and have a drink and schmooze and talk about surprisingly serious stuff on a Friday afternoon without you. Yeah, we’re done. Please and thank you. Make me Smart, which is the podcast that you’re listening to and we are grateful for that is produced by Courtney Bergsieker. Today’s episode was engineered by Charlton Thorp. Drew Jostad wrote the theme music to Half-Full/Half-Empty. Antonio Barreras is our intern.

Kimberly Adams 

The team behind our Friday game is Mel Rosenberg, Emily McCune and Antoinette Brock. It’s Mel’s last day at Marketplace. We’re gonna miss her so much

Kai Ryssdal 

No Mel!!!

Kimberly Adams 

But a big thank you to Mel who is awesome, and for all the amazing work that she’s done for Make Me Smart. Thank you! Marissa Cabrera is our senior producer. Bridget Bodnar is the director of podcasts. And Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On-Demand.

Kai Ryssdal 

Oh my god, that was some timing.

Kimberly Adams 

Thank you. I was working on it.