Today we’re talking about a breakout story of this election cycle: the rise of prediction markets and betting on elections.
For the first time in a century, Americans can legally place bets on election outcomes using a platform called Kalshi. But the Commodity Futures Trading Commission warns that these markets could warp the public’s understanding of our elections if they’re treated like polls.
“There’s reports now that this is such a razor-thin election that could be decided by hundreds of votes. So if you can convince 1,000 people not to vote because there’s this perception that it’s a foregone conclusion, then that could affect a win,” said Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy for Better Markets, a financial reform advocacy group.
On this Election Day episode, Dumas explains how Americans are dabbling in election betting, the legal questions surrounding these prediction markets, and why he believes manipulation of these markets has the potential to sway elections.
Then, we’ll dig into the history of the “I Voted” sticker and hear a perfect poem for Election Day. Plus, a listener shares what moving abroad taught them about the U.S. voting system.
Here’s everything we talked about today:
- “Election betting is newly legal — and risks getting confused with polls” from NBC News
- “Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket gives Trump a 67% chance of winning but is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say” from Fortune Crypto
- “Cryptoverse: U.S. election speculators play the prediction markets” from Reuters
- “Wall Street regulator moves to ban election betting, escalating fight over new market” from Politico
- “The Case for Legalizing Political Betting” from the Cato Institute
- “How ‘I Voted’ Stickers Became an Election Day Staple” from Business Insider
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