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The rise of election betting
Nov 5, 2024
Episode 1278

The rise of election betting

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It's legal — for now.

Today we’re talking about a breakout story of this election cycle: the rise of prediction markets and betting on elections.

For the first time in a century, Americans can legally place bets on election outcomes using a platform called Kalshi. But the Commodity Futures Trading Commission warns that these markets could warp the public’s understanding of our elections if they’re treated like polls.

“There’s reports now that this is such a razor-thin election that could be decided by hundreds of votes. So if you can convince 1,000 people not to vote because there’s this perception that it’s a foregone conclusion, then that could affect a win,” said Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy for Better Markets, a financial reform advocacy group.

On this Election Day episode, Dumas explains how Americans are dabbling in election betting, the legal questions surrounding these prediction markets, and why he believes manipulation of these markets has the potential to sway elections.

Then, we’ll dig into the history of the “I Voted” sticker and hear a perfect poem for Election Day. Plus, a listener shares what moving abroad taught them about the U.S. voting system.

Here’s everything we talked about today:

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The team

Marissa Cabrera Senior Producer
Courtney Bergsieker Associate Producer