January retail sales slipped almost 1%, but views differ on what it means

Feb 14, 2025
There's a lot of nuance in interpreting the data and different ways to measure it.
Retail sales fell last month, per the Census Bureau. Did fires and snowstorms influence demand? What items were counted?
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How much can Americans spend? Check the money supply.

Dec 26, 2024
M1 and M2 figure into consumption and inflation and can be used as a policy lever by the Federal Reserve.
The M2 hit almost $21.5 trillion last month, as reported by the Federal Reserve. Above, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
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Disposable personal income rose at a faster pace in October than the month before

Nov 29, 2024
Income growth is continuing to propel the U.S. economy. But whether consumers keep spending into next year could depend on where they are on the income scale.
Rising debt delinquency rates and dwindling savings could put a damper on consumer spending.
Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

Why economists are struggling to predict jobs growth

Oct 8, 2024
The increasingly dynamic nature of the American economy since the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought deep changes.
Although economists are less inaccurate with their jobs growth predictions than they were earlier in the pandemic, some key indicators are still incongruent with our economic reality.
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Forward-looking economic indicators turn positive

Mar 22, 2024
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index turned positive in February for the first time since February 2022. That's a sign that the economy will avoid a recession this year, even if it slows down.
Stock prices, manufacturing orders, credit availability and other indicators all give us hints about future economic activity.
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What's the best way to predict where the economy is headed?

Jul 20, 2023
Some question the predictive powers of the The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a past predictor of recessions.
While investors may be closely watching The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, economists caution it may not be as predictive as it once was.
Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

This little-known accounting measure is ringing an economic warning bell

Jul 12, 2023
The level of corporate earnings manipulation is similar to that of other pre-recessionary periods, according to the M-Score.
The M-Score was used to flag Enron as having an elevated risk of fraud years before the company filed for bankruptcy.
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Economic indicators can't tell us the economy's whole story

Jun 23, 2023
The manufacturing sector is shrinking, according to a report. But that doesn’t account for people’s spending or the tight labor market.
"If you move beyond the vibes and look at the hard data, we’re creating jobs at a gangbusters pace, unemployment is at a 50-year low," says Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan. "This ain’t a recession, man."
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U.S. money supply is shrinking. Does that mean we’re all doomed?

Jun 13, 2023
Movements in money supply matter, but not as much as they used to.
The U.S. money supply is falling for the first time in the modern era.
Naser Jafari/Tasnim News/AFP via Getty Images

What can the beer market tell us about the economy?

Mar 17, 2023
A beer industry group's data shows a steep decline for the craft segment in February as consumers spent more consciously.
While seltzer sales saw an uptick last year, craft beer sales declined.
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