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Economic predictions

Why economists are struggling to predict jobs growth

by Sabri Ben-Achour
Oct 8, 2024
The increasingly dynamic nature of the American economy since the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought deep changes.
Although economists are less inaccurate with their jobs growth predictions than they were earlier in the pandemic, some key indicators are still incongruent with our economic reality.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
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Here's the economic "in" and "out" list of 2024

by Kristin Schwab
Jan 5, 2024
Rate hikes and recession fears are out, economists tell us, and rate cuts are in — but so is geopolitical uncertainty.
In/out lists for the new year have flooded social media. "The widespread belief that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession seems to be out," says economist Sean Snaith of the University of Central Florida.
Jordan Mangi/Marketplace
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Want to know which way Fed policy is headed? This quarterly report offers hints

by Nancy Marshall-Genzer
Mar 14, 2023
The Summary of Economic Projections lays out what Fed leaders are thinking.
People wanting to understand the Fed's thinking may want to turn to the body's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections report.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
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For those who sell, predicting the economy is more than theoretical

by Sabri Ben-Achour
Feb 21, 2023
Manufacturers and retailers have to decide what to make or stock now based on where they think the economy will be later.
Retailers will often mark down prices to move inventory. But suppliers will sometimes share in the loss by giving retailers a credit.
Carlos Jasso/AFP via Getty Images
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