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What does the Phillips curve tell us about the economy?

Jun 5, 2024
The Phillips Curve says that low unemployment is linked to high inflation. But history shows that the economy doesn't always work that way.
Economist A.W. Phillips came up with what’s known as “the Phillips curve” in 1958. It says that low unemployment is linked to high inflation.
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Fed steers interest rates on path toward "neutral"

Jun 3, 2024
The central bank seeks the right rate for controlling inflation while promoting economic growth. It's a moving target.
The interest rate we'd have in "normal" times is called the neutral rate. But it's an elusive, theoretical idea that changes with economic conditions. Above, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
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Kyla Scanlon wants to remind us that "people are the economy"

May 30, 2024
Scanlon explains her philosophy of economic education in this excerpt from her book, "In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work."
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Child care costs are a big part of why Americans feel inflation still stings

Prices have climbed persistently, yet the service is persistently scarce. That, in turn, hurts kids and undermines the labor force.
Women are working slightly less since 2019, and the extra time is devoted mostly to child care or elder care, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.
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Why the cost of coffee beans is climbing

May 27, 2024
Higher global demand for the drink and climate change's effect on supply are behind the upward trend.
A coffee producer in Minas Gerais, Brazil, holds up a handful of robusta beans. Vietnam and Brazil, the top growers of robusta, are suffering droughts. 
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Like the Fed, corporations also eagerly await economic data

May 22, 2024
This year, bigger-than-expected inflation reports are playing a role in determining when companies decide to borrow money by issuing bonds.
"A company is not going to come to market with a new bond deal unless they feel reasonably confident that that bond deal is going to go pretty well," says Winnie Cisar with CreditSights. Above, traders on the New York Stock Exchange floor.
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Inflation and politics have always been connected

May 21, 2024
Rising costs have long been a concern for Americans. What's changed is how the government intervenes in prices, economist Carola Binder writes.
"The return of inflation was not only, or even primarily, an academic concern. It was, even more, a social and a political one," economist Carola Binder writes in her book "Shock Values."
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For public good, not for profit.

When assessing inflation, it's not just the data, it's also the narrative

May 17, 2024
The CBO data show purchasing power rising across all income groups, but the numbers reflect averages, and individuals' experiences vary.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, purchasing power went up across all income groups because incomes grew faster than prices between 2019 and 2023.
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Retail sales figures suggest consumers are pulling back

May 15, 2024
The latest figures, for April, suggest that rising prices, high interest rates and depleted pandemic savings may finally be weighing on spending.
In surveys, consumers report they’re increasingly worn down by inflation, said Morning Consult's Claire Tassin.
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Why isn't the cost of borrowing money included in the consumer price index?

May 15, 2024
Loans are a big cost, but they would muddle the data in the CPI. Fed rate hikes would essentially create inflation, despite their intention.
Borrowing is a major expense for many Americans. One example is the interest on car loans.
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