Recent Federal Reserve data paints a fairly rosy picture of the Houston economy — 2% job growth and a 4.2% increase in real hourly earnings year over year in April.

The thing about numbers, though, is that they work both ways. 

A new United Way report finds a 5% increase in the number of Houston-area households struggling to afford basic necessities. How is the economy working for the working class in the 4th biggest city in the country?

Affordability has been a long-time selling point for people willing to brave the Houston heat, humidity and highways, said Dan Potter with Rice University. 

“Houston has a historically affordable place to live, where it can roll in here and work hard, and you could have a middle class life,” Potter said.

But in an annual survey of Houstonians with Rice’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research, Potter recently found some of the lowest levels of optimism about the economy since the 1980s.  

“You start to see some of the cracks in the armor there,” he said.

Potter said things are especially tough for folks without a high school diploma. He blames inflation, especially housing costs: two-thirds of locals could afford to buy a median-priced home a decade ago, compared to a third today.  

Students and their families are struggling with housing, said Daisy Morales. She runs AAMA charter schools that serve low-income Houstonians.

“They’re all starting to live together, add more family or individuals to one, you know, family unit, moving into less and less desirable areas,” Morales said.

Rev. Ed Gomez has seen a similar trend while doing outreach at St. Paul’s Episcopal Church.

“These are not people that are unemployed. These are people that are working service jobs, landscaping, all sorts of janitorial jobs, cafeteria jobs, usually food industry,” Gomez said.

He said his church has had to turn away around 40 cars of families a week from its food drive. This is as evictions in Harris County have surged far beyond the pre-pandemic average, per data from Princeton University’s Eviction Lab.

“We are absolutely seeing an uptick in evictions from landlords who want to raise rents on people who are locked into lower rates, without question,” said Lone Star Legal Aid’s Eric Kwartler.

Kwartler said many families are dealing with deaths or other crises and get behind on bills. When landlords take them to court, it can make it even harder to get future housing.