Inflation falls, but not as much as expected
You’ve probably heard by now the inflation news that came from the good folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics today: Consumer prices, as measured by the consumer price index, rose 3.1% in January, compared to a year ago.
And while that headline number is actually lower than the 3.4% inflation we got in December, it was higher than a lot of people were expecting (see: Wall Street).
Now, the road to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target is not going to be without some speed bumps. So is this just one of those bumps?
Even if the stock markets freaked out a little about this inflation report, economist Ann Owen at Hamilton College said she’s not all that worried.
“I don’t think this is an alarming report. I think it’s only a surprising report because people thought we were going to get something else. But surprises aren’t always alarming,” she said.
So, sure, it would have been nice if core inflation — that’s inflation without volatile energy and food prices — had come in lower than 3.9% year-over-year.
But a lot of that core inflation is how the CPI calculates shelter costs, which ends up lagging behind what’s happening with real rents.
“We should see shelter inflation moderate over the course of this year, we’ve seen asking rent inflation really cool off,” said Stephen Juneau, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
If there is anything to be truly worried about in the data, it would be in the services sector outside housing. Veterinarian prices were up nearly 10% year-over-year, accountants up 11%.
Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, said a lot of that is wages.
“You also have to remember that we still have a tight labor market. Unemployment rate is still at 3.7%,” he said. “We still have labor shortages across the country.”
Sonola said wage inflation is partly why Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company may keep rates higher for longer. The pipe dream of a rate cut in the next few months is probably pretty much gone.
Sonola likens fighting the last mile of inflation to a certain type of horror movie: “The zombie that refuses to die.”
The inflation zombie is not the threat it was, but it’s still out there, somewhere.
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