As we have been reporting for months now on “Marketplace,” policymakers at the Fed are looking for signs that higher interest rates have cooled this economy down a bit.

And tomorrow morning, they may well get one when the Commerce Department releases retail sales numbers for June.

Sales have been pretty flat for the last few months as consumers have held back spending, and if that continues, it could boost the case for an interest rate cut.

Ask retail analysts to sum up how consumers are feeling right now, and the vibe sounds … not great.

“Cautious,” says Lupine Skelly at Deloitte.

“Jittery,” says Jessica Ramirez at Jane Hali and Associates.

“I think they’re in a wait and see mode,” says Keisha Virtue with JLL. She said the main thing holding spending back is not, surprisingly, inflation. 

It’s cooled in recent months, but rising prices over the last few years are eating into household budgets.

“Consumers are still really feeling that pressure from those higher prices overall, and they’re adjusting their spending accordingly,” explained Virtue.

That means focusing mostly on the essentials. Consumer spending has often been surprisingly strong in the face of inflation. But a lot of those purchases were made with credit cards. And that’s starting to add up, says Jane Hali’s Ramirez.

“Consumers have really accumulated debt during this time. So again, that’s still something that’s sitting on their plate,” said Ramirez.

Retail has also been hurt by another trend, says Skelly at Deloitte. Those who do have some extra money to throw around aren’t necessarily shopping.

“So they’re looking to spend on experiences and travel, or perhaps even re-padding their savings,” said Skelly.

There are a few potential bright spots ahead for the retail sector, including back-to-school shopping. Deloitte and JLL have conflicting predictions, but they agree – the back-to-school season has started really early.

“I think people just want to check off their list, make sure they have everything they need well in advance,” said Virtue, who is also part of that trend.

“I think I got it done, I would say early June,” she said.

If enough parents also planned that far ahead, it might show up in tomorrow’s report.

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