Why are mortgage rates going up again?
Mortgage rates are ticking up again. This summer, in the weeks before the Federal Reserve announced it was cutting interest rates, mortgage rates had been falling in anticipation of that cut. But soon after the Fed’s announcement, they started rising again.
Just two weeks ago, mortgage rates were dropping: “[Mortgage rates] came down quite a bit in July and August in anticipation … that the Federal Reserve was going to start cutting rates,” said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant.
Where are mortgage rates were likely to go next? “There was really no expectation that they would continue to fall, right? That all of the falling had sort of been baked in,” she said.
In other words, there was also no expectation that mortgage rates would rise again.
But Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said then came the September jobs report, which was unexpectedly strong.
“Another piece of evidence that the job market is staying stronger than many had anticipated: Maybe the Fed’s not going to have to cut as far or as fast as previously thought,” he said.
A strong job market is a good thing for the economy. But it’s not so good for mortgage rates. (At least, not if you’re a prospective buyer who’s hoping for them to go down.)
“When the economy is looking a little stronger, prospects a little brighter, rates might move up. When people are more worried about the state of the job market and the broader economy, rates may trend down a bit,” Fratantoni said.
Mortgages are long-term loans — 15 or 30 years.
So Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, said what happens with mortgage rates has a lot to do with expectations about the long-term trajectory of the economy. Sensing a theme?
“Expectations. Expectations about what interest rates will be 10, 20, even 30 years from now go into what mortgage rates are today,” she said.
If you want to know where mortgage rates might be headed, Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, said keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury bond yield.
“It’s just borrowing costs on the longer end, that’s why the 10-year yield matters more than the Fed funds rate. So, follow the economic data and it’ll guide you to where mortgage rates will go,” he said.
When the economy looks strong, like it does now, the yield on those 10-year Treasuries tends to rise. So you can expect mortgage rates might too.
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