Trump’s election win is making the dollar stronger
Trump’s election win is making the dollar stronger
The U.S. dollar has been climbing. It rose about 1.5% against other major currencies last week after Donald Trump’s election victory, and it’s up about 5% since late September. So what’s behind the surge?
First off, the dollar is strong because of global macroeconomic fundamentals, said Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“U.S. growth is holding up better than it is overseas. China’s struggling. Europe skirted a recession but growth continues to lag,” said Schlossberg.
A strong economy here attracts investments from abroad — into stocks and bonds, for instance — because they deliver a higher return.
It’s also significant when the dollar started rising most recently, said Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. It was in late September: “That’s roughly when the betting markets started to anticipate a Trump victory,” he said.
Investors expect a pro-business agenda, he added. “The market’s perception is that both the deregulation and lower corporate taxes will spur U.S. growth.”
This might lead the Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate-cutting, per Joseph Gagnon at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“And that makes the dollar more attractive to foreign investors,” said Gagnon.
Going forward, another factor could keep the dollar strong, said Wells Fargo’s Schlossberg.
“There’s that safe-haven role for the dollar, to the extent there are geopolitical uncertainties,” he said. And there are aplenty — from the South China Sea, to Ukraine, to the Middle East.
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