Incumbents are losing around the world, not just the U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris and the Democrats in last week’s election represents another hit in a string of losses for incumbent parties around the world.
Marketplace looked at advanced economies that have undergone elections since 2022, when inflation peaked in many countries.
Incumbent leaders, parties or coalitions in more than 70% of the countries we analyzed lost the presidency or prime ministership in the time period we studied. Less than 30% of incumbents retained those top positions.
Both left-leaning and right-leaning incumbents lost power over the past two years in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, Belgium, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and Argentina.
Meanwhile, incumbents in Japan, India, Mexico, Spain and Taiwan managed to retain power during that time frame.
We looked at the top 25 countries with the highest GDP, then excluded countries without free elections, like Russia and Turkey, and Switzerland, which does not have one single head of state or head of government.
We analyzed whether incumbents retained control over the position considered to be that country’s head of government, whether that’s the president or prime minister. (In Taiwan’s case, the head of government is officially known as the premier, but is equivalent to a prime minister.)
In Italy, the unity government collapsed in 2022 and the prime minister –- an independent –- resigned. These events led to a snap election. The unity government’s main opposition party took control of the prime ministership, so we counted that as a loss for incumbents.
Incumbents in other countries with upcoming elections face an uncertain future. Ahead of Canada’s 2025 general election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is behind the Conservative Party in the polls. And Germany will have a snap election early next year after the governing coalition collapsed in November. If you’re curious about how much vote share incumbent parties lost this year, the Financial Times did an analysis on that. For the first time, every governing party in a developed country lost vote share in an election.
Inflation is poison for incumbents
Political science expert Michael Miller said he thinks inflation is the most plausible theory right now explaining the anti-incumbent wave happening around the world.
“People very much do not like inflation and very commonly vote against incumbents when it happens,” said Miller, a professor at George Washington University.
Depending on the country, some of the other issues that may be fueling these losses include concerns about climate change, the way incumbents handled the COVID-19 pandemic, and immigration. In Europe, far-right politicians are stoking fears about immigration and promising to curb it, said Alan Cafruny, a professor of international relations at Hamilton College.
Consumer prices rose significantly since the pandemic across dozens of advanced economies, according to a 2022 Pew Research analysis of 44 countries. In almost all of these countries, the average annual inflation rate had doubled from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2022. In roughly a third of those countries, the rate more than quadrupled.
A majority of adults in about three dozen countries rate their economies negatively, according to a 2024 Pew Research Center survey.
The turn against incumbents we’re seeing is unusual, since they typically have an advantage, Miller said.
As for why that’s the case, Miller said there are many theories. “One is that incumbents use their advantages in office, such as the ability to set policy, to raise more money, to grab more media time, to look ‘presidential’ or the equivalent,” Miller said. “Another set of explanations are more citizen-focused. Incumbents by definition have won an election, so citizens may be more likely to keep electing them unless something has gone very wrong. This may be out of inertia, an attachment to past choices, unwillingness to admit mistaken choices, etc.”
In the U.S., specifically, inflation almost certainly played a role, Miller said. Surveys show that the economy was top of mind for Americans voters (although pundits and lawmakers are putting forth a variety of other reasons that may explain Harris’ loss.)
Inflation reached 9.1% year over year at its peak – America’s highest level since 1981. It’s now cooled down to 2.4%, the lowest level in three years, but Miller said people still perceive prices as too high (even though presidents have limited power to influence prices.)
A snapshot of incumbents that lost power
The U.K.
The Labour Party beat Conservatives in a landslide victory earlier this year and gained power for the first time in 14 years. Keir Starmer is now prime minister, succeeding Rishi Sunak.
The Conservative Party received backlash over its involvement in numerous scandals, crumbling public services, Britain’s high cost of living and controversial deportation policies. Sunak’s government aimed to stop migrants from entering the U.K. by deporting them to Rwanda. That policy cost the U.K. $900 million, even though no one was deported and less than a handful of people went voluntarily.
Brazil
Left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat right-wing presidential incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. Lula himself used to be president from 2003 to 2011. Bolsonaro’s loss can be linked to a variety of factors, including the way he handled the COVID-19 pandemic, which had killed nearly 700,000 people in Brazil by the time of the election; rising poverty; inflation; and “aggressive and undemocratic rhetoric,” according to news reports at the time.
Australia
In Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison of the conservative Liberal Party was voted out in 2022 and center-left Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese took over as prime minister.
Voters gravitated toward the Labor Party due to concerns about the cost of living, including housing, and the climate crisis, reported The Guardian. Because of concerns about climate change, some voters that election eschewed both the Labor and Liberal parties, and supported candidates focused on addressing the climate crisis.
France
Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election for France’s lower house of parliament after the far-right National Rally came out ahead of his center-right party in the European parliamentary elections. Frustrations have grown over an increase in the retirement age, immigration and the cost of living.
A left-wing coalition ended up winning the election over the far-right, while Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance took second place. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who was from Macron’s Renaissance party, resigned. Michel Barnier of the conservative Republicans party is now prime minister. Macron chose Barnier to “heal divisions within France,” but the decision has received backlash from both the far-right and far-left, NPR reported.
Italy
Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s national unity government collapsed in 2022, leading Draghi to resign (Draghi was an independent). The far-right Brothers of Italy, which opposed Draghi’s government, won a snap election in 2022 after the collapse and secured the prime ministership. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who galvanized her base with anti-immigration rhetoric, is now head of the “most right-wing government since the end of World War II” as NPR characterizes it.
Sweden
In 2022, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson of the left-wing Social Democrats resigned after a bloc of right-wing parties won a majority of parliament. Ahead of the election, consumers expressed worries about stagnant economic growth and rising electricity bills and interest rates.
Argentina
Right-wing Argentinian president Javier Milei, who’s been compared to Trump, won his election in 2023 over Sergio Massa, a candidate who was from the ruling coalition and the outgoing president’s administration. Milei’s victory came as Argentina’s annual inflation rate reached 140%, one of the world’s highest.
South Korea
In South Korea, conservative Yoon Suk Yeol of the People Power Party beat the ruling Democratic Party in 2022 amid high housing prices and rising inequality. But in early 2024, the Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the country’s parliamentary elections, leaving the PPP in a weaker position.
A governing party’s loss may not necessarily be a referendum on their policies. Indonesia is an unusual case because the outgoing president was a popular leader who supported a candidate from an opposing party instead of his own. And that support is a big reason why that candidate, Prabowo Subianto, won the presidency in 2024.
A snapshot of incumbents that retained power
Mexico
In Mexico, left-wing president Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party beat her competitors in a landslide victory this year. Sheinbaum succeeded outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
“I think one of the reasons why Morena was able to win is they are still considered ‘the change party,’” Miller said.
It’s natural for voters to pick the party associated with change if they are dissatisfied with the economy, he explained.
Although Sheinbaum won a decisive victory, some incumbent leaders and parties have seen a decline in support.
India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to rely on other parties in his alliance to retain power after his right-wing party failed to gain a majority for the first time since 2014. Experts link Modi’s waning support to unemployment, inflation and concerns about whether he would safeguard the constitutional rights of marginalized castes.
Taiwan
In Taiwan, Lai Ching-te of the governing Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency earlier this year over the Kuomintang party, or the KMT, which is seen as pro-Beijing. Lai rejects China’s sovereignty claims, which helped him secure his victory. “Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party’s appeal to self-determination, social justice and rejection of China’s threats ultimately won out,” wrote the Associated Press. Lai appointed Cho Jung-tai, a former DPP chairman, as the premier of Taiwan, which is the equivalent of a prime minister.
But the DPP lost its majority in parliament amid high housing costs and stagnant wages, Reuters said.
Japan
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of the Liberal Democratic Party was recently appointed by parliament to remain as the country’s leader despite political turmoil. Just last month, a snap election led the LDP to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years. The LDP has had to contend with a slush fund scandal, while voters are grappling with inflation and stagnant wages.
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