Between 2018 and 2022, thefts of catalytic converters surged. That’s the part of a vehicle that reduces greenhouse gas emissions. And converters have been targeted because of the high value of precious metals inside — rhodium, platinum … palladium. But the metals market is changing.

When people think about the market for precious metals, gold and silver probably come first to mind, said Joshua Hall, owner of True Vine Investments. 

“Gold always steals the show, gets all the attention!” Hall said.

But there are reasons to watch the performance of metals like platinum and palladium, which are closely tied to the automotive industry. Particularly palladium.

“80% of palladium is used for catalytic converters,” explained Hall. That’s the part of a car that helps scrub carbon monoxide as it burns fuel.  

“In recent years, the price of palladium has skyrocketed,” Hall said, “just due to supply and demand issues.”

“From 2018 onward, the price began around about $900 an ounce,” said David Holmes, senior vice president of trading and sales at Heraeus Metals in New York, “and ultimately peaked when Russia invaded Ukraine at $3,300 an ounce.”

And because Russia is one of the largest producers of palladium — along with South Africa — there was a run on the metal at the start of the war. 

Holmes said that spike in palladium prices caused a spike in catalytic converter thefts. “They’re very easy to cut off the bottom of cars,” he said. And then take to metal recyclers for a lot of cash. 

But that trend may be turning around. The price of palladium has been falling in recent months, from that peak of over about three grand per ounce down to about $1,300 per ounce. Platinum prices are down too.

“Global demand growth for metals has receded a little bit,” said Jim Wyckoff, a senior market analyst for the online metals trading site Kitco.

But maybe more important, Wyckoff said, is the growing market for electric vehicles. Because EVs don’t need catalytic converters.

“On a longer term basis, the move toward electric vehicles is going to mean less demand for platinum and palladium,” he said.

Even though these precious metal prices are coming down, it won’t necessarily translate to cheaper gas-powered or hybrid cars.

But Holmes said there is one possible upshot: “Your catalyst probably won’t be stolen in the next year.”

Because it’s just not worth quite as much as it used to be.