When there’s a big snowfall in the Cleveland area, Andy Lenart is out plowing his neighbors driveways. He doesn’t own a plowing business per se. He’s like a lot of plowers in this part of the country: a guy looking for a little extra cash who happens to own a pickup.

“It came with a plow, and I started to do my own driveway with it, and then a friend of mine asked if I could do a couple driveways, and it turned into four driveways,” he said.

Lenart grew up in Auburn, Ohio, about 40 minutes southeast of Cleveland. The snowy seasons these days are a lot shorter than he remembered them growing up.

“I started doing this, say, 12 times a year. And now the last three years, I’ve only been out four or five times,” he said. “You start talking about global warming, and it’s real. I’m convinced. I have facts written down on my charts when I do this.”

The last two winters in Cleveland have been unusually warm. Snowfall was way below average.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts this winter is going to be warmer than usual again across giant swaths of the southwestern U.S. and for most states east of the Mississippi River.

When you live this close to Lake Erie, climate change doesn’t automatically equal less snow. It’s not that straightforward.

“It’s hard to tell, because every season is so different being in Northeast Ohio,” said meteorologist Salix Iverson with the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

The biggest snowstorms here happen before Lake Erie freezes and after it thaws. So as the climate warms, Iverson said, “it freezes over later than it has been in years past. That would essentially give the region a longer window of time where lake-effect snow would be possible.”

That would mean gentle, winter-wonderland dustings become less common, but the school-canceling lake-effect blizzards can happen more frequently. Even drought-ridden Californians know this climate story: A warming climate makes giant precipitation dumps more frequent and more intense.

Not exactly great news for Andy Lenart, a guy with a truck who can only plow when there’s room in his schedule. “I got a main job, so I can’t devote a whole lot of time to this,” he said.

And Lenart charges per plow, so occasional giant snow dumps are less lucrative than consistent dustings.

It’s not great news for the folks who do this full time either. Michael Supler of Great Lakes Snow and Ice Management plows hospital and shopping mall parking lots. He has employees in those parking lots monitoring the weather, ready to serve his clients at the first sign of snow.

“They demand constant service. They want no chance of a slip and fall there. It takes a lot of time, a lot of material, and they pay for it,” he said.

Supler estimated that last year he provided $300,000 of time and materials for one client. “In a good winter, that could be approaching $800,000,” he said.

For his big customers, Supler doesn’t charge per plow but per season. That’s good value when it snows consistently. But fewer storms means every plowing is more expensive for his clients. And long term, that’s not an attractive model. 

Nobody’s canceling or demanding he create a new business model just yet.

“Does it make me nervous? Yes.” But, he said, “I don’t see that happening in the next 10 years.”

At least for him, adapting is pretty straightforward: He also runs a landscaping company. So a shorter snow season could mean more money for his other business.