It’s hard to pin down where Russia stands with the United States these days. On one hand, the country was notably absent from President Donald Trump’s otherwise-comprehensive list of tariffs levied last week, and the administration has lightened its foreign policy stance toward Russia. On the other hand, the president has also maintained the economic sanctions enacted after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and he doesn’t appear to be in a hurry to change course.

Alongside those sanctions, the international business community has been turning away from Russia. According to a database maintained by the Yale School of Management, over 1,000 businesses have either left the country or pulled back operations in some way beyond legal requirements, upending several decades of investment going back to the 1990s.

Geopolitical risk consultant Charles Hecker, who has worked and traveled in Russia for 40 years, chronicled this history in his new book “Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia.” Hecker spoke with “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal about the past, present and potential future of doing business in Russia. The following is a transcript of their conversation.

Kai Ryssdal: Could we do a level set here, first? Before the invasion of Ukraine, what were things like in the Russian economy for American businesses?

Charles Hecker: Well, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, business in Russia was feeling slightly apprehensive but relatively comfortable. I mean, Russia had gone from a fairly wild frontier to a place that was complicated, but where you could get deals done. And I think that's the way American businesses felt, that it wasn't the easiest market to be in, but it was a place where you could do business.

Ryssdal: And that was, as you said, the result of three decades of American and international investment. And the promise was that — and look, we've seen this play out before, most specifically with China — the promise was that changing the economy would change politics in Russia. Didn't happen. What's your sense of why?

Hecker: That's right. So we made a series of assumptions about what would happen to Russia, and in the early 1990s, the assumptions were a few things. And that is that if you invest in a country, that companies can change the way a country works. The other assumption was that this would help steer Russia towards becoming a liberal democracy. And in fact, we assumed that the two had to happen simultaneously, that you couldn't have a market economy without a liberal democracy. We found out in countries like China that that's not necessarily the case. But in early days, we thought, you know, get lots of business into Russia. They'll learn about how to run a market, and they will democratize at the same time.

Ryssdal: Then, just to skip ahead a little bit, we get to the annexation of Crimea. We get to the invasion. American businesses, Western businesses, largely leave, not entirely, but largely leave. And now what you have over there is Chinese businesses, Indian businesses and the specter under President Trump of maybe American businesses being able to get back in there. What do you think?

Hecker: Well, that's absolutely right. So while the Westerners were away, a lot of other countries came to play. Famously, one of the big highways as you get close to the city limits of Moscow, that highway is sort of dotted with car dealerships, and those dealerships used to sell things like Volkswagens and Toyotas and Nissans. Those car dealerships now are almost exclusively selling Chinese cars. So there's been some change on the ground, but you're absolutely right, Kai, to point out that the conversation in the United States now has completely turned around. And with the advent of the Trump administration, the attitude of the United States now seems to be towards normalizing relations with Russia. And what that's done is it's kicked off a fairly widespread and fairly intense conversation about whether or how or when companies should go back. And you know, not every American company that left Russia will go back, but I feel quite strongly that a lot of companies are talking about it.

Ryssdal: So let's say, just to keep with cars here, that Mary Barra, the CEO of General Motors — and look, I'm making this up. I have no idea what her plans are, but let's say she calls you and says, “Charles, you've lived and worked in Russia for a very long time, you're an expert on international business over there. What do you think, should I do it?” What would you say?

Hecker: Well, I think I would tell her that the safest way to do business in Russia right now is probably from a distance. If there were a way for General Motors to put cars in boxes and export them to Russia, and then unload them at a port, probably somewhere around St. Petersburg, that might be one way of doing it. But to go build a factory that you'll want to see there for 40, 50, 60 or more years, that's a big leap before a lot of other questions get resolved about the future of Russia and international business.

Ryssdal: Well, just on the way out here, let's lay out a couple of those questions. What else is there that's sort of floating around in your mind?

Hecker: Russian intellectual property law has been completely eviscerated, and what Russia is allowing its own companies to do is to essentially counterfeit Western medication. So if I were an Eli Lilly based in the U.S., or if I were a Novo Nordisk, for example, based in Denmark, I'd be quite hesitant to go back until I knew that intellectual property rights in Russia were strong and defensible. And I think maybe even most importantly, there's been a change to the business elite in Russia that may or may not want Western business back. And if they do, it will probably be on their terms and conditions.