yield curve

Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor
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But this time may be different. One theory is that weaker data allowed companies to prepare and soften the economic landing.
Japan loosens its grip on long-term interest rates
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The Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control policy” could be on its way out as central banks around the world raise rates to beat inflation.
An inverted yield curve usually signals recession. Is it wrong this time?
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For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn’t happened yet.
The bond market yield curve is inverted — which some economists think foreshadows a downturn
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The yield for a two-year note is roughly a whole percentage point higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury right now. And that often precedes a recession.
Recession fears may be receding
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Some recent economic indicators suggest the risk of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months is diminishing.
A guided tour of the yield curve
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The federal government sells more than a dozen different kinds of bonds. They all have very different purposes.
Why this yield curve inversion could be different
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This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession’s on the way.
When the yield curve inverts, how nervous should we be?
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Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.
Is the yield curve talking to us?
A lot of attention is being paid right now to what’s known as the yield curve. And if you don’t know what that is, it’s essentially the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term government bonds. In a growing economy, you typically see higher rates on the 10-year Treasury note than you do on […]
The Fed talks interest rates with an eye toward the yield curve
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today to talk interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise its target rate by a quarter of a point for the second time this year. And with unemployment reaching a new low last month and inflation creeping up, analysts expect officials to keep raising rates […]

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