In a historic move this week, U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California, was ousted as House speaker. Now, the race is on to fill his seat. Reps. Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan are moving to take over McCarthy’s position as speaker. But another government shutdown may be looming in the background.

Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, spoke about this congressional mess with “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio. Below is an edited transcript of their conversation.

David Brancaccio: The political theater here is fascinating. But you know, if you’re running an organization that wants to understand the world because you’re making big money decisions, given a headless House of Representatives, I mean, how are we supposed to understand this thing? For instance, Ian, chances for a government shutdown in November — higher or lower, do you think?

Ian Bremmer: They’ve just gone way up. And if what people were most concerned about over the last couple of weeks was can you keep Ukraine funded and can the U.S. maintain that policy, that has just been kicked down the priority list because people are worried about are you going to have a government shutdown and will you be forced to do a 1% contraction of spending across the board. That has impact on every American in a way that Ukraine feels a heck of a lot farther away.

Brancaccio: Right, so if the people in Ukraine are searching for money and other resources for a new spring counteroffensive, you know, next year sometime, this now seems more remote, given the turmoil in Washington.

Bremmer: Absolutely. This was a horrible week for President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy in Ukraine. His ability to ensure that he will have the continued support to even maintain present level of military operations — never mind a potential second counteroffensive — those all now look like a pipe dream. And remember, this is coming from President [Joe] Biden, who has said, as long as it takes, whatever it takes, we’re there. That lasted a matter of months. The Americans are no longer in a position to provide that. And of course, the U.S. is providing the overwhelming share of military support.

Brancaccio: I mean, this is partially answering the next question: Ian, chances for Congress to get anything else done for the rest of the year?

Bremmer: We don’t yet know what the rules are for an acting speaker in terms of what they can and they can’t actually rule on. We will find out on the basis of the rules-making inside the House as they go on. But certainly the ability to continue to get significant funding support, anything the House puts together, anything that can pass the House that the speaker would put forward would be dead on arrival in the Senate. So you’re looking at a showdown between the two houses. And again, you’re looking at the most important geopolitical issue that the United States has taken a leadership role on. Ukrainians are left in the lurch, the Europeans extremely concerned about the future of the transatlantic alliance.

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