Is the shoplifting “crisis” over? Last year, retail executives were sounding the alarm about shoplifting cutting into profits. This year, there’s been less hullabaloo. CNN reported that mentions of “shrink” on companies’ earnings calls dropped 20% in the first half of 2024.

Shoplifting is shrink, but not all shrink is shoplifting. Shrink refers to all inventory losses, including theft by customers and employees, but also damage, errors, returns and vendor fraud. Experts told Marketplace about 40% of store losses are due to customers liberating products from shelves. 

Foiling thieves may cost stores loyal customers. Plexiglass barriers reduce shoplifting but increase friction for paying customers. For instance, shoppers are less likely to make impulse purchases when they have to wait for an employee to unlock a cabinet. It appears that brick-and-mortar stores could win a short-term battle against shoplifting, but at the expense of hard-earned foot traffic. Making the shopping experience inconvenient and hostile has already prompted some customers to buy online instead of in person.

Retail theft panic during the pandemic was based on sloppy number crunching. The National Retail Federation claimed in 2021 that theft by organized crime rings had skyrocketed and used inaccurate data to lobby lawmakers to crack down on theft. The NRF retracted those claims last year and acknowledged that “quantifying the scope of organized retail crime is challenging.” Experts told Retail Dive that some companies may have inflated their theft problem to justify store closures and staff reductions.

Smart in a Shot

The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded was at $3.24 yesterday, down 17% from the same time last year.  As AAA put it, “Pump prices are free fallin’” and barring major geopolitical shifts or natural disasters, the national average may drop to $3 a gallon by the end of this year. Ask an energy economist, and they’ll tell you this is unremarkable for early fall. Demand dips as summer travel wraps up and kids get back to school. Oil refineries are also producing cheaper, but more polluting, “winter” blends of gasoline. 

But it’s also an election year, with the price at the pump top of mind for many voters. Though gas accounts for relatively little consumer spending, demand is largely inelastic. Whether prices are high or low, most Americans can’t opt out of buying gasoline, which is why its cost can sway their perception of the economy.

Presidents have very little influence over the price of gas, but Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi made the case that this number can predict election outcomes better than polls and betting markets. Back in May, Zandi’s modeling forecast a Joe Biden victory if prices dipped below $3 a gallon. If prices spiked above $4, the odds would fall more favorably to former President Donald Trump. 

In four of the six swing states likely to decide the presidential election, a gallon of regular was somewhere in between. Georgia averaged $2.96 per gallon at last check. Nevada? $4.

By the Numbers

The Food and Drug Administration approved an updated COVID-19 vaccine at the end of August. It’s the latest annual update to the messenger RNA vaccines since 2022. Let’s do the numbers.

$2.3 billion

The federal government invested at least $2.3 billion in research and development for a COVID vaccine during the first two years of the pandemic. The Department of Health and Human Services and other agencies still devote hundreds of millions of dollars to COVID research. 

$160 

A shot produced by Pfizer, Moderna or Novavax can cost more than $160. The government is no longer subsidizing the vaccine after it was commercialized last year, but most people will still be able to get it without paying out of pocket.

17.8%

COVID infections surged over the summer. The national test positivity rate reached 17.8% in mid-August, the highest level in 2½ years. This coincided with rising COVID-related emergency room visits and hospitalizations.

$11,275   

A study published in JAMA Network Open found the average cost of an inpatient hospital stay for COVID is $11,275, rising 26% between 2020 and 2022. Patients with comorbidities could expect to pay almost $3,000 more.

None of Us Is as Smart as All of Us

Tell us what’s making you smarter at smarter@marketplace.org. We’d love to include your recommendation in a future newsletter.

Meet a professional whistleblower

Since the Dodd-Frank Act passed in 2010, it has been government policy to reward whistleblowers with up to 30% of the money recovered from big-time financial fraudsters they help catch. Producer Courtney Bergsieker is reading a GQ article about one man who’s made whistleblowing his full-time job and hopes to train others to follow in his footsteps. 

The rise and fall of liverwurst

Whether you love or hate the word “squishy” — you can probably agree it shouldn’t be used to describe food. Liverwurst, a squishy, highly processed version of liver pate that was once a lunchtime staple, has become a scarce commodity behind the deli counter. Host Kimberly Adams recommends a New York Times story (gift link) about the lunch meat relic, which reads a bit like an obituary.

Pocketbook voting is the cliché that just won’t quit

When voters are economically stressed out, they often blame the party in power. Producer Marissa Cabrera recommends  a “Latino USA” podcast episode about inflation pain as measured by the price of tacos and how it could influence the Latino vote.