The economists’ word of the year
At Marketplace, we like to take really big economic concepts and break them down into smaller, more digestible pieces. As we near the end of the year, we’re sticking with that framework. But instead of diving into labor market, inflation or money supply data, we’re breaking down the entire 2024 economy.
We reached out to a few economists and professors you’ve heard from on our show and asked them to pick one word or phrase to describe the economy this year. Here’s what they had to say.
1. Uncertainty
“This year has been rife with economic uncertainty. One key dimension of uncertainty has been related to who would become president, as economic policy would likely have looked very different under Biden vs. Harris vs. Trump. Another relates to Fed policy and inflation; how quickly inflation would subside and interest rates would fall has been top of mind for many people and firms. Uncertainty is important because it can cause people to postpone choices like spending (especially big purchases), buying homes, how much to save, and how much to invest in safe vs. risky assets.” — Sasha Indarte, assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
2. Underappreciated
“Almost all aggregate economic indicators indicated strong macroeconomic economic fundamentals for 2024, and yet there was substantial discontent. Even disaggregate measures for slices of the income distribution suggested pretty good conditions (wages exceeding inflation).” — Menzie Chinn, professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
3. Bumpy
“I choose ‘bumpy’ because the economic data this year have not held a clear message. We have hit a few bumps in the road to normalizing monetary policy because the data have told conflicting stories at different points. I am hoping for more clarity in data next year.” — Julie Smith, professor of economics at Lafayette College.
4. Resilient-ish
“Overall, the economy has consistently managed to defy predictions of imminent recession. We’ve had relatively solid growth and historically low unemployment, and inflation has reached the long last mile. The ‘ish’ is that it’s not obvious what the near and medium term holds. Tariff policy and geopolitical uncertainty could be big shocks as we transition to another Trump presidency, not to mention bigger questions about whether the administration will succumb to the temptation to interfere with monetary policy decisions.” — Ethan Struby, assistant professor of economics at Carleton College.
5. Steadfast
“The economy was reliably strong during 2024, inflation declined, output growth was steady and strong, the labor market remained resilient despite high interest rates, and productivity grew nicely. The economy was undeterred by all the concerns that people had about 2024, from commercial real estate, to banking instability, to the rundown of consumer liquid wealth, to global instability, to election uncertainty.” — Jonathan Parker, professor of financial economics at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
6. Moderating
“The economy is still performing well — GDP and spending have been strong, unemployment is still low, but most measures are a bit more moderate or slightly cooler from the year before. Inflation has moderated, the hot labor market has cooled off somewhat, excess savings appear to be largely drawn down, the Fed has lowered interest rates somewhat, etc. In other words, I wouldn’t call the economy ‘cool’ yet, but I would say it has cooled off from when it was really piping hot.” — Sofia Baig, economist at Morning Consult
7. Slowly normalizing
“During, and after, the pandemic, there were a lot of economic processes that moved back towards something resembling normal this year. Inflation, wage growth, hiring, supply chains, and income growth have all moved, in varying degrees, back towards levels that look similar to where the economy was on the eve of the pandemic. What to look for in 2025: How much further will things ‘normalize’? Will some pass normal (as hiring has) or will we see a new normal (like we might with productivity)?” — Preston Mui, senior economist at Employ America.
8. Hemiprosperous
“It captures the idea of a bifurcated economy that provides financial comfort and prosperity for half (‘hemi-‘ meaning half) of its population, while the other half struggles to build wealth under the weight of financial obligations.” — Stephanie Kelton, professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University.
9. Dynamic
“The U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience, but inside of this dynamism, we’ve seen slowdowns and accelerations. This is why I prefer ‘dynamic’ over something like ‘resilient’ because we are absorbing the good, adjusting to the challenges, and moving upward. At least, for the moment.” — Belinda Roman, associate professor at St. Mary’s University.
10. Tragically underrated
“The economy is the strongest economy compared to its peers globally and compared to itself in the 21st century. Prime-age labor force participation and employment is quite close to its all-time high (seen at the turn of the century), inflation is down, asset prices are up, inflation-adjusted wages are up. Americans hate it. Why? They had big handouts in 2020 that they miss? They are still adjusting to the higher level of prices? It’s tragically underrated because their dislike of this strong economy risks the strong economy.” — Betsey Stevenson, professor at the University of Michigan.
Use the audio player above to hear a selection of these responses.
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