One of the sectors bracing for another round of tariff announcements is agriculture. And on Tuesday morning, we got a window into how that’s affecting farmers’ and ranchers’ moods.

Purdue University’s Farmer Sentiment Index for March slipped on weaker expectations for the future, with 43% of farmers citing shifting trade policy as the top driver of their pessimism. 

Five-year expectations for ag export markets hit an all-time low for the survey. 

Farmers are used to dealing with the unknown, said Kristen Owen, managing director with the research firm Oppenheimer. 

“We usually think about uncertainty coming from weather, coming from pests,” said Owen. 

And we usually think of federal policy as insulating the farm economy from those chaotic forces. But right now, it’s piling on. 

Owen said farmers who were already stressed about breaking even in a tough commodity price environment now have bigger things to worry about. 

“Where do we send grain? And where do we send agricultural products globally?” said Owen. 

If countries targeted by the Trump administration tariffs respond with tariffs of their own, demand could fall for American corn and soybeans, and other ag exports. 

Michael Langemeier, who runs the Purdue survey, said it’s sort of surprising farmer sentiment wasn’t lower in March. 

“A lot of the respondents are thinking that yes, it looks like we’re going to have tariffs, they’re going to have a negative impact on farm income. But they’re expecting some compensation,” said Langemeier. 

Compensation like the billions in federal relief paid to farmers during the last Trump administration trade war. 

Two-thirds of respondents to the Purdue survey are expecting something similar. 

“Farmers would much, much rather have an open and fair and free market that we can sell our products to,” said Josh Gackle at the American Soybean Association. 

Gackle farms soybeans, corn and barley in Kulm, North Dakota, where he said the mood is pretty jittery. 

“If you go to the local cafe and you sit down at a table with neighbors, probably the first thing that comes up is what is the price of soybeans today? What’s the price of corn? What’s the price of wheat?” said Gackle. 

In his small town, Gackle said everyone’s livelihood is tied up in shifting trade policy.