The price of copper has surged in the past few weeks to its highest level in nearly 10 months. Traders typically think of copper as a leading economic indicator; rising prices often predict economic growth ahead. But copper’s rising price may be sending a murkier signal right now.

Copper is generally a good indicator because it’s used all over the economy — in factories, houses, electronics and streetlights, per Chris Berry, founder and president of House Mountain Partners.

“The next time you’re on an airplane at night, and you’re coming in for a landing, and you see any lights or anything like that, every single one of those lights is working because of the electrical conductivity of copper,” he said.

So, if the economy is growing, and we’re building more, we’ll need more copper. 

Thing is, something else is going on right now. “In this specific case, I don’t believe that copper is acting as a leading indicator,” said Ian Lange, who teaches mineral economics at the Colorado School of Mines.

What’s mostly driving copper prices now is the threat of tariffs, he said. Companies are stocking up on copper as they attempt to navigate changing import tax policy.

“It’s just more because we don’t really know what’s going to happen,” Lange said. “‘Let me maybe try to buy some and hold it, just in case.'”

In the longer term, copper prices could keep rising — regardless of whether the Trump administration raises tariffs on the metal, said Chris Berry. That’s because more of the economy is electrifying.

“You need a lot of copper to effect the energy transition, right?” he said. “You need a lot of copper for data centers.”

Demand from those industries, he said, could keep copper prices higher for years to come.