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Are we finally done with revenge spending?

Consumers have been saying how fed up they are with inflation. But they keep on buying stuff, says Stephen Brown at Capital Economics. 

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A bump in spending on vehicles, appliances and furniture — items that could be affected by tariffs — is a clue that consumer behavior could be catching up with anxieties, says Stephen Brown of Capital Economics.
A bump in spending on vehicles, appliances and furniture — items that could be affected by tariffs — is a clue that consumer behavior could be catching up with anxieties, says Stephen Brown of Capital Economics.
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There is some good news in Friday morning’s data from the Commerce Department: American households’ income is still growing. It was up 0.8% in February — twice what analysts were expecting. 

But there’s a bit of a red flag buried in the report. Consumer spending came in weaker than expected and the personal savings rate is up, both of which are signs consumers could be feeling the need to hang on to their money. 

Over the past few years, consumers have been telling pollsters how fed up they are with inflation. Then they keep right on buying stuff, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief at Capital Economics. 

“You know, the link between consumer confidence and spending has broken down in recent years,” said Brown.

But in Friday’s data on income and spending, he sees clues about ways consumer behavior could be catching up with our anxious mood. 

Clues like a bump in spending on certain goods — like vehicles, appliances and furniture — all of which could be affected by tariffs.

And, said Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo, there was a dip in spending on services. 

“That’s considered a weakness just because services consumption is typically very steady, even in the worst of times,” said Grein.

It’s steady because services in this context include housing and health care, which don’t fluctuate much.

This pullback is driven in part by slower spending on discretionary services, like traveling and going out to eat. 

“It’s no longer this whole YOLO, revenge spending kind of thing,” said Ted Rossman, an analyst at Bankrate. Those forces that have helped buoy economic growth in recent years, he said, even through a pandemic, global conflicts and high inflation.

“It feels like something new is happening, that the story is starting to change,” he said.

Rossman said U.S. consumers might finally be running out of steam. And if prices keep rising, they might not come to the rescue this time.

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