Estimating the GDP of this entire economy — which now stands just shy of $29.2 trillion — is a work in progress. 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis just gave us its mostly final estimate: the economy grew at 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

That number tells a story of where the economy was headed coming into this year. That story has taken a turn.

2024 was kind of the end of the post-pandemic party. Not a hangover — just, the party kind of died. No more pent up demand; government stimulus mostly done. 

“And that massive wave of growth that sort of peaked in 2023 with over 3% GDP growth had kind of slowed to about 2.5% in 2024,” said Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist for UBS. 

At the beginning of this year, it looked like 2025 was also going to be all about a gradual slowdown. But now the slowdown is looking a little less gradual. Pingle took his estimate of growth this year down from 2% to closer to 1.5%.

“You are reaching the point where the tariff actions are becoming less of an inflation concern and more of a longer-term growth risk concern,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. “The uncertainty alone is going to drag on growth.”

Businesses hold off on decisions when they don’t know what’s happening, and consumers spend less when they’re anxious. When economic growth slows down to about 1%, the economy reaches a tipping point, said Pingle.

“If you get down below, say, 1% GDP growth, you start to put yourself in a position of job gains turning negative, and then, all of a sudden, the labor market is actually contracting,” said Pingle. 

But Pingle doesn’t think we’ll get there this year. Neither does Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute. 

“It’s very hard to make the U.S. consumer stop spending. There are a lot of consumer consumption categories that are kind of very stable, especially more on the services part,” said Levanon. 

Uncertainty and tariffs may slow the economy, but he said they don’t look like they’ll be enough to stop it.